In The Final Weeks Of This Year, The Full Trendline For 2023 Shows Some
Real Stability For North America Construction Framing Softwood Lumber
Prices. Especially In Comparison To The Previous Couple Of Years.
Indeed, the weekly price of both benchmark Western S-P-F and Southern Yellow
Pine East Side 2x4s landed almost exactly where they were one year ago. This
gives industry the ability to better understand market conditions and to
plan for the coming year.
For their part, customers — whether home builders or lumber retailers —
continued to show reluctance to make purchases beyond immediate needs. After
all the uncertainty of recent years, lumber buyers are concerned that prices
might fall, thus have been holding off buying for inventory stocking.
The muted housing construction activity for the second half of this year
also suggests caution in keeping large volumes of wood on hand. However, the
discipline exhibited by sawmills across Canada and the US, to curtail when
demand
was soft, has done a lot to keep the level of supply in balance with demand.
There is one more week of lumber price reporting from Madison’s for this
year … our first publication date for subscribers in 2024 will be January 4.
Many players felt this was the most balanced they’ve seen the market all
year, with neither the supply or demand side able to exert much pressure one
way or the other.
In the week ending December 8, 2023, the price of benchmark softwood lumber
item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$408 mfbm. This is
down by -$6, or -1%, compared to the previous week when it was $414. That
week’s price is up by +$5, or +1%, from one month ago when it was $403.
Demand was flat in standard dimension and panel products, while unexpected
strong pockets of sales were reported in Hem/Fir markets.
The tone of US Western S-P-F sales was similar to the previous week as
prices, demand, and supply were all flat. Business meandered along at a
seasonally-appropriate pace, with buyers poking around the distribution
network to find what near-term coverage they needed to get them through to
year-end.
The sentiment heading into the holiday break was somewhat positive due to a
combination of heavy inquiry for 1Q 2024 orders, as well as economic
indicators that appeared to be stabilizing. Many traders advised their
charges to secure early-2024 shipments as they said January is a big month
for lumber sales.
Demand for Western S-P-F lumber saw little change from the previous week
according to Western Canadian suppliers. Sawmill asking prices were flat
almost across the board, with a few exceptions landing on either side of the
previous week’s levels.
Wholesalers and distributors reported a better mix of availability from the
sawmills; albeit sporadically and in small volume chunks. Buyers continued
to replenish sparingly as they had most of their needs covered for the
remainder of December.
No news was good news in the realm of transportation.
Sales and inquiry of Eastern S-P-F commodities was hit-and-miss. With most
sawmill asking prices meandering around the previous week’s levels, many
buyers couldn’t decide whether they should jump in and cover their needs for
the remainder of 2023, or wait and see whether they could snag some
discounts before the holiday break. Producers traded on price in order to
motivate vacillating buyers, with some already taking orders for after they
return from holidays. -- Madison’s Lumber Reporter
Compared To The Same Week Last Year, When It Was Us$400 Mfbm, The Price Of
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr Kd (Rl) For The Week Ending December 8,
2023 Was Up By +$8, Or +2%. Compared To Two Years Ago When It Was Us$710,
That Week’S Price Is Down By -$302, Or -43%.
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