As September Waned The Focus Of Lumber Commodity Buyers Shifted From
Replenishing Their Chronically Lean Inventories To Macro-Conditions.
The focus of lumber commodity buyers shifted from replenishing their
chronically lean inventories to macro-conditions; such as looming interest
rate cuts, the US Presidential election, and the potential work-stoppage at
ports on the US eastern seaboard. Thankfully the dockworkers’ job action on
the US East Coast was soon resolved.
However, the damage to transportation infrastructure — roads, highways,
railways — from Hurricane Helene is not yet tabulated even to this date. As
power is restored in storm-affected areas, it is clear there has been
interruption in manufacturing at lumber producers. There are three major
sawmills and more than 10 medium-sized facilities in those locations.
Given that lumber buyers have been keeping extremely low inventories for
more than a year, there was an immediately-felt shortage of supply. As a
result, Southern Yellow Pine prices did increase somewhat. There was also a
jump in sales of Eastern Spruce-Pine-Fir, but those prices remained flat.
In the week ending September 27, 2024, the price of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir
2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$394 mfbm, which is down -$10, or -2%, from the
previous week when it was $404, said weekly forest products industry price
guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price is up +$12, or +3%, from one month ago when it was $382.
Compared To The Same Week Last Year, When It Was Us$400 Mfbm, The Price Of
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr Kd (Rl) For The Week Ending September 27,
2024 Was Down -$6, Or -2%.
Compared To Two Years Ago When It Was $520, That Week’S Price Is Down By
-$126, Or -24%.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
Producers felt no pressure to change prices, as sawmill order files were
into early- or mid-October.
There was ample discounted material available.
Buyers continued to replenish bare minimum inventories from secondary
suppliers.
A decent if underwhelming sales clip kept material flowing out of vendor
yards.
Players maintained that scanty supply would limit further potential
downside.
Low-key urgency of Southern Yellow Pine buyers was buttressed by the number
of no quotes purchasers received from sawmills.
Plywood sellers in the East reported late-October production order files.
Cash wood offerings of Oriented Strand Board were nonexistent from panel
mills in the West.
MADISON’S BENCHMARK TOP-SIX SOFTWOOD LUMBER AND PANEL PRICES: MONTHLY
AVERAGES
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