The Annual Seasonal Lumber Price Trend Is Returning To The More Predictable
Changes Historically Recognized By Industry Players.
Producers and end-users alike are finally seeing some stability, which
provides confidence and makes it easier to plan into the mid-term future.
The big question on everyone’s minds, and the main driver to this ongoing
attitude of caution, is “what is the new price bottom?”.
Even as prices levelled off, and the facts of markedly increased
cost-of-production at sawmills are widely known, customers have remained
wary of what might be the next shock. Players would rather get caught short
of the lumber they need for ongoing building projects, than to stock up on
wood only to see prices drop.
This has meant lumber manufacturers are keeping production volumes lower to
stay in line with this soft demand, in order to prevent prices from falling
below manufacturing costs.
In the week ending September 20, 2024, the price of benchmark softwood
lumber item Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$404 mfbm. This
is down -$6, or -1%, from the previous week when it was $410, said weekly
forest products industry price guide newsletter Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
That week’s price is up +$22, or +6%, from one month ago when it was $382.
When compared to the same week last year, when it was $416, that week’s
price is down -$12, or -3%. Compared to two years ago when it was $520, that
week’s price is down -$116, or -22%.
In the week ending September 20, 2024, the price of Southern Yellow Pine
East Side 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$400 mfbm. This is up +$5, or +1%, from
the previous week when it was US$395 mfbm.
That week’s price is up +$10, or +3%, from one month ago when it was US$390
mfbm.
When compared to the same week last year, when it was $535, that week’s
price is down -$135, or -25%. Compared to two years ago when it was $620,
that week’s price is down -$220, or -35%.
MADISON’S BENCHMARK TOP-SIX SOFTWOOD LUMBER AND PANEL PRICES: MONTHLY
AVERAGES
KEY TAKE-AWAYS:
Commodity prices were mostly unchanged as producers were content to cruise
at current levels.
Secondary suppliers moved good volumes amid light counteroffers from
purchasers.
Sawmill offer price lists varied considerably from producer to producer.
Buyers mostly remained on the fence even after the news of lower interest
rates and better housing starts data.
Secondary suppliers posted much greater price variability as they continued
to empty their inventories of older, lower-priced, material in preparation
of inbound orders from the sawmills.
Buyers in the US Northeast refrained from building any volume.
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