Affected by the macroeconomic regulation and control, rising raw materials and labor costs, the trend of China's timber price index in 2017 is on the rise. Among them, the market of raw material logs was high, the market of wood-based panel tended to be stable, and the sawn wood market dropped slightly. It is estimated that the timber industry price hike will continue in 2018, and the wood-based panel market will be revitalized.

1. The trend of China's timber price index in 2017

(1) The timber market

 As of October 2017, the logs classification index closed at 1108.49, an increase of 0.2% qoq. Three major markets rose and fell two, Guangzhou Yuzhu Wood Index was 1120.08, up 0.67%; Shanghai Furen logs index was 1177.26, up 0.04%; Sichuan Southwest Wood Index was 976.34, down 0.86%.

So far, the fish ball market, the representative of species of logs are still maintained the momentum of the best-selling, with a handle West Nutmeg, iron wood beans, pull, African rosewood, etc. are still favorable for downstream manufacturers, the transaction price was 2850 yuan / Cubic meter, 3000 yuan / cubic meter, 2650 yuan / cubic meter, 3650 yuan / cubic meter.
 

(2) Wood-based panel market

By the end of October, the price index of China's wood-based panel was 1024.54, down by 1.14% from the previous month. The artificial board index of the fish ball market was 1070.01, up by 0.94% compared with the previous month; the Furen index was up by 824.01, up 0.11%; the big Southwest market index was down by 2.86% at 1202.34.

With the end of the traditional home improvement season, wood-based panel market gradually calm. To Guangdong fish ball, for example, 15%, 18% fine wood board average transaction price of 115 yuan / piece, 125 yuan / Zhang, the price is more stable.

(3) Sawn timber market

By the end of October, China sawn timber market price index was 1115.87, up 1.17% from the previous month. Yuzhu market lumber index was 1023.98, down 0.11%; Furen market index was 1193.06, up 1.19%; Sichuan Southwest Market Index was 1145.28, up 3.48%.

At present, the sales price of the representative varieties of Chinese fir in the southwestern market of Sichuan reported 1220 yuan / cubic meter; the transaction price of natural white African wood was 3180 yuan / cubic meter. Other markets such as the blessing market, on behalf of the varieties of red rubber, black walnut closed at 5800 yuan / cubic meter, 17,200 yuan / cubic meter. Insiders said that if there is no new factor boosted in the latter part of the market, the market of lumber is expected to continue to decline.

2. The main factor affecting the trend of China's timber price index in 2017

(1) Environmental crisis

If 2015 is the starting year for putting pressure on environmental protection policies and 2016 is the year for environmental policy outbreaks, then 2017 is the year of environmental reform. "Overall Plan for Monitoring Soil Environment in the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", "Layout of National Control Point for Soil Environmental Monitoring" and "Work Plan for Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution in 2017 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Provinces and Peripheral Areas"; coal-to-electricity, And the slogan of "winning the battle to win the blue sky". In 2017, this protracted environmental storm set off and covered 31 provinces across the country. Many wood-based enterprises stopped production and even rectification. Many small and medium-sized furniture enterprises will face the crisis of raw material shortage and unmarketable commodity products, eventually detonating the tide of collapse.

(2) The supply gap

Although the timber industry suffered a serious blow, the market slowed down the delivery of goods, timber prices have declined, but there are also some wood due to discontinued processing plants caused the market in short supply and prices, such as North America, Gatson, escalating environmental crisis in August, Gatson import Increasing costs, the volume of stocks and stocks are also limited, the situation is in short supply prices rose trend. Recently Cass pine domestic and foreign post has been basically stable, market is better, and there are continued rising situation. In addition, rubber wood and Pinus sylvestris prices also soared, the recent trend has stabilized.

(3) Cost increases

Labor costs increase. Most of the traditional wood factory production methods, the environment is poor, the imbalance between men and women, coupled with no family after 90 constraints, frequent job changes, the factory had to develop a variety of channels to recruit, raise wages, improve production and living conditions, high costs directly compress the business profit.

Transport costs increase. Since the second half of 2016, shipping costs have started to increase. Some European shipping companies have also issued circular notices that the cost will rise to 2,500 U.S. dollars or more in April this year. Imported timber producers are unmanageable. November 1 this year, railways, shipping containers and other shipping prices also formally price increases, industry estimates that price adjustment will be between 5% -8%, while the supply of logs in overseas prices also continued to rise.

3. 2018 wood market forecast
 

(1) rental security policy refinement to promote the development of wood-based panel industry

To date, over 48 cities nationwide have launched their own policy cards in order to promote the development of the leasing market. As the earliest city to implement the policy of "purchasing the same rights," Guangzhou has repeatedly issued three documents a month to refine the policy on rent protection.

The housing market, the New Deal, will spawn a number of institutional housing renters. Coupled with the change and advocacy of national housing policies, the future wage-earners may not necessarily become the homeowners, and as renters, they also enjoy many social benefits. Driven by such new policies, the rental market will inevitably grow rapidly, and the demand for new furniture will be magnified.

May 1, 2018, the new plywood standard will be fully implemented, the formaldehyde problem of the plywood furniture is expected to be resolved. In the demand side and the supply side of the two major good changes, panel furniture is expected to take the opportunity to come back, plywood industry will also be full of new vitality.
 

(2) environmental reform, a huge impact on timber prices or will continue

Repeated environmental inspections, Langfang, Xingtai, Heze, Linyi, Shuyang these plate base, accounting for about 70% of China's sheet metal production, inspectors have been the Central Environmental Inspector, 95% of the sheet metal was temporarily discontinued Rectification.

Some time ago, due to overcapacity in the market, coupled with many jerry-building, deliberately depressed the price of small businesses upset the market price, so many good products difficult to highlight, the price therefore can not mention. However, under tight policies, a large number of non-compliant enterprises will be severely punished. This will affect the stock market. When the contradiction between supply and demand is further intensified, coupled with inflation in raw materials and supporting costs and rising environmental costs, Lead to the overall increase in sheet metal products. Environmental storm is not over for the time being, so the tide of timber market is likely to continue until next year.

(3) Ban export policies have been implemented in the timber market in short supply

As China's largest exporter of birch logs, Russia disrupted the relatively stable birch prices in Russia due to its bustling purchases of birch from China and its price advantage as a bait. In January of this year, Russia has put forward the requirement of limiting birch exports. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia implemented the quota system for unprocessed timber exported from the Russian Far East and revised the export tariff rate since December this year. Relevant proposals have been submitted to the government for approval.
At the same time, the Gabonese government decided not to fully implement the six-month ban on alpine blooms and the Malaysian government totally banned exports of rubber trees. The ban on logging and banning the export of logs in various places have been carried out one after another. This situation is undoubtedly worse than the current status of the Chinese log market. Next, the demand for the Chinese log market will certainly fall short of demand. The price of timber rising next year is already visible.

Timber prices, the timber industry appears to be booming, but the price increases at the same time, operating costs also will increase, businesses are facing increasing pressure, high buy and sell high and can not bring greater profits, but to Pay more time and effort. Behind the prosperity of the industry is the difficult operation of timber people.