Market overview
European sawn timber prices held broadly stable through August, but market participants say the calm is unlikely to last, reporting “an emerging shift.” One European trader said that while Nordic mills claim stock is low, “in reality stock is high and offers are appearing in the market, pointing to a coming price decrease.”

Some producers see the recent stable price situation as a partial win, helping them keep their heads above water, saying that increased costs and lack of demand have created a difficult situation. However, comments were also heard that despite producers’ need for stable prices, the quiet market is putting the pressure on, with increased competition seen especially in spot markets.

Shortfalls against housebuilding targets have also become the norm across regions. In the Dutch market, industry contacts said housebuilding is declining, with targets of around 100,000 units running closer to 60,000 actual completions, demonstrating a persistent annual shortfall. However, they also said that, in the longer term, this could mean a deficit of available housing, possibly leading to a shortage when the real estate market starts moving again.

In the UK, construction industry forecasts point to a 10% drop in repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity, with new-build activity down 8%. One UK-based source said, “UK stocks are low,” with the market running very “hand to mouth.”

The demand picture across export markets remains fragmented, with some regions performing better than others. One market source said, “demand was weaker than usual but picked up significantly in the last two weeks, especially in the Netherlands.” Belgium is also seeing demand, the source added, though fierce competition among major players for even small orders is keeping Belgian prices substantially below Dutch levels. “To get orders from the [Belgian] market, you need to lower your prices,” they said.

A market source said the lack of sawlogs on the German market is keeping those producers’ volumes below their usual maximum production capacity and balancing the supply-demand situation.

In Germany, one spruce sawfalling assessment showed limited movement in August. The midpoint for the 44-50×150 mm grade edged down by 0.8% month on month, while the 63×150 mm and 50×100 mm grades remained stable. In France, all tracked spruce sawfalling grades strengthened compared with July, with midpoint values increasing by around 1.6% after assessed ranges moved €5 ($7) per cubic meter higher at both ends. Meanwhile, prices in Benelux were unchanged, with all monitored spruce grades continuing to trade within the same ranges as in previous months.

In the UK, the spruce sawfalling 44-50×150 mm assessment recorded a modest increase, lifting the midpoint by 0.8% from July, while the 50×100 mm grade was unchanged. Pine assessments remained broadly stable across the market. Pine V 38×150 mm held at July levels after declining in the previous month, while Pine US 50×150 mm, Pine V 25×100 mm and Pine VI 25×125 mm also showed no month-on-month change.


Freight costs and truck shortages add pressure
Fuel costs in Finland are continuing to push up transport and production expenses, while emerging logistics risks have also come into focus as freight companies begin rerouting via the Red Sea, said one European supplier.

The source said that due to the ongoing geopolitical tension “we are seeing higher insurance premiums” for vessels using the Red Sea corridor.

A second source said that in central Europe the logistics risk also remains, with sawmillers growing increasingly frustrated by freight costs, while truck availability remains an issue for certain regions. It was reported that container availability remains tight, with surcharges persisting.

That pressure is playing out differently across export markets. In Germany, the national rail operator, Deutsche Bahn has closed some rail lines for reconstruction, causing logistical bottlenecks, sources said. Truck driver availability also remains an issue, at least through September-October, while return-delivery constraints to some destinations may further limit truck availability in certain regions.

Even though there would be enough availability of trucks for most of the markets, a market source said that “my contacts still complain about the costs of logistics.”

In France, freight pricing remains a structural factor in the market, with one participant noting the delivered price of goods can vary by €25 between the northern and southern parts of the country.

Stora Enso moves forward with Veitsiluoto closure; Moelven to shut down Årjäng sawmill
Stora Enso announced on September 16 that it had completed negotiations on the permanent closure of its 200,000-cubic-meter-per-year Veitsiluoto sawmill in northern Finland.

The decision forms part of the company’s plan to improve the profitability and competitiveness of its sawmill operations in Northern Finland, with the producer saying it plans to further centralize production.

According to Stora, profitability across its sawmill portfolio will continue to be “challenging” owing to high raw material costs in the region.

Scandinavian sawn timber manufacturer Moelven announced on September 8 that it will discontinue sawmill operations at its Årjäng sawmill in Sweden.

The Årjäng Såg closure will reduce market supply by 110,000 cubic meters. The producer said that the move is a consequence of challenging market conditions and the need to utilize timber resources as efficiently as possible.

Moelven added that geopolitical uncertainty and high raw material costs have weighed on profitability across the sector, and that focusing timber consumption at its other facilities will help the group remain competitive.

Finnish sawlog trade volumes show a small recovery from Jul, prices rather stable
Following the main holiday season in Finland in July, roundwood trading recovered slightly in August. Total sawlog trading increased by just over 8% from July, with spruce volumes rising by around 10% and pine volumes by 3%. Despite the monthly improvement, total sawlog trading remained nearly 16% below the level seen in August 2025, with pine volumes down by more than 21% and spruce volumes by around 12%.

Standing-sale prices for softwood sawlogs in Finland were relatively stable in August, according to Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) data. The average price for pine sawlogs decreased slightly to €77.35 per cubic meter, while spruce sawlogs edged up to €83.25 per cubic meter. Compared with July, pine prices fell by 0.7%, while spruce prices increased by 0.1%.

Despite the mixed monthly development, prices remained well above the lows seen at the beginning of the year. Compared with January, average pine sawlog prices were still 5.7% higher in August, while spruce prices were 7.8% above their January level.

Compared with August 2025, pine sawlog prices were 3.4% lower, while spruce sawlogs were 1.4% higher than a year earlier. Market participants will now be watching whether the seasonal recovery in trading activity gathers pace during the autumn purchasing season.

A Finnish market contact said that, according to their estimates, sawlog prices in Finland will remain either stable or slightly higher for the rest of the year. The difference between pine and spruce sawlogs is expected to remain at about the same level as now.

Swedish sawlog prices fall in the second quarter
In Sweden, sawlog prices have reportedly been declining, with windfalls from the Christmas storms still affecting pine supply, market sources said.

The Swedish sawlog price statistics published by the Swedish Forest Agency (Skogsstyrelsen) covering the second quarter of 2026 show preliminary prices moving down both quarter on quarter and year on year. Compared with the first quarter of this year, prices moved down by 12% for Scots pine and by 9% for Norway spruce, to SEK 855 ($87) per cubic meter and SEK 1059 per cubic meter, respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the prices were down by 17% for pine and by 14% for spruce.

However, many market contacts still consider the Swedish prices to be high and to be limiting the profitability of sawn timber production in the country. A market analyst told Fastmarkets that “I would not say that the prices have normalized, though there has been some decline,” adding that the price situation is still putting pressure on the industry.

Market outlook
One Nordic supplier told Fastmarkets that Q4 spruce demand looks stable, though this varies by country, with customer stock levels generally running below normal, adding that restocking will be needed heading into the new quarter.

This was echoed by a Finnish source, who said stock levels across Swedish and Finnish sawmills are lower than usual, adding that while pine faces pressure from oversupply relative to demand, spruce is expected to remain comparatively stable. The source added that, “spruce sales remain easier than pine sales overall”.

In the Netherlands, suppliers are aiming to hold Q3 pricing levels into Q4, with most customers said to be accepting this approach. Sawmills took heavy losses in the first half of the year, and further price cuts would only worsen their position, one European trader said, though smaller mills are reportedly still making offers below market.

In the UK, heading into Q4, prices have likely dropped by around £30 ($40) per cubic meter on C24 carcassing, a shift one source said was being driven by importers rather than customers. The source also flagged that UK buyers hear “storm-damaged logs” and assume there are lower-priced deals to be had, when in reality “savvy [saw]mills would recognize this shouldn’t affect pricing”.

Despite persistent shortfalls against housebuilding targets, several sources pointed to structural reasons for longer-term optimism on timber demand. Environmental constraints mean buildings can no longer rely solely on concrete and steel, pushing demand toward alternatives like wood, so even with underbuilding, timber demand should grow as construction methods shift, one source said.

This was reinforced by comments from a UK-based contact, who said that government housebuilding targets are unlikely to be met due to a shortage of skilled labour, though the underlying structural shift toward timber construction remains intact.

Summing up the broader outlook one Swedish industry analyst told Fastmarkets that “conditions are improving but still fall short of where they need to be, and companies are still operating at a loss. The analyst cautioned that raw material costs, while down from earlier highs, remain elevated enough that producers are still operating at a loss on every cubic meter produced. The analyst described the situation as unsustainable in the longer term if not corrected.

Source: fastmarkets.com