An automated production line in the Freres Engineered Wood facility in Woodburn.
    
A study by Oregon State University and the Oregon Department of Forestry has modelled the potential economic contribution of mass timber-related activity in the US state under different demand scenarios.

Mass timber is becoming a growing part of Oregon’s forest products sector, but its economic contribution has been difficult to measure because it is not tracked separately in standard economic data, according to Oregon State University.

The term covers engineered wood products used in large structural applications, including cross-laminated timber (CLT), mass plywood panels and glue-laminated timber (glulam).

Researchers from Oregon State University’s College of Forestry and the Oregon Department of Forestry have estimated the sector’s market value and potential contribution to jobs, labour income, value added and economic output in the state.

The study was led by Gang Lu and Andres Susaeta of Oregon State University’s department of forest engineering, resources and management, alongside Marcus Kauffman, Brandon Kaetzel and John Tokarczyk of the Oregon Department of Forestry.

Different approaches show a range of values

Funded by the Oregon Department of Forestry and published in the journal Forests, the study used production- and demand-based approaches to estimate the size of Oregon’s mass timber market.

The production-based analysis examined Oregon’s role as a manufacturing state, using factors including facility capacity, market share and product revenue. The demand-based approach assessed market activity from the use side, including harvest routing, building floor area and projected US demand.

The researchers then used economic modelling to assess how mass timber-related activity could contribute to the state’s economy.

The results suggest that Oregon’s mass timber market value is better represented as a range than as a single figure.

Between 2018 and 2023, production-based estimates ranged from $17.1m in 2018 to $102.1m in 2019, before reaching $21.1m in 2023.

Demand-based estimates were lower and more stable, ranging from $8.2m to $12.3m over the same period.

The researchers also found that the wider economic benefit depends partly on how much mass timber activity is retained within Oregon’s supply chain. This includes spending on lumber, adhesives, transport, machinery and wholesale services.

Scenarios point to potential growth

The study modelled several scenarios to examine how the sector could develop in the future.

Under a high-demand scenario, mass timber-related activity in Oregon could support up to 14,110 jobs and generate $4.56bn in total economic output by 2035.

These figures are scenarios rather than forecasts. The results depend on assumptions about US demand growth, Oregon’s market share, Canadian supply, product prices, regional purchasing and spending patterns, as well as output per worker.

The findings are intended to provide policymakers and economic development leaders with a basis for assessing public investment, identifying supply-chain opportunities and considering how Oregon could capture more economic value from mass timber.

Source: ourimpact.oregonstate.edu