Canadian lumber exports to the United States fell 13% year on year to 11.8 million cubic metres in January-June 2026, while revenue dropped 28% to $2.1 billion. The collapse of bilateral tariff talks adds further uncertainty for the integrated North American forest-products market.

Volumes and prices decline

Canadian lumber exports to the United States fell 13% year on year to 11.8 million cubic metres in January-June 2026, according to Lesprom Analytics. Export value declined more sharply, dropping 28% to $2.1 billion, while the average export price fell 18% to $175 per cubic metre. The figures show that Canadian suppliers faced pressure from both weaker shipment volumes and lower unit returns during the first half of the year.

In the same period of 2025, Canada shipped about 13.6 million cubic metres of lumber to the US market. Those exports generated approximately $2.9 billion at an average price of about $213 per cubic metre. The year-on-year comparison indicates that declining prices accounted for a substantial share of the revenue loss, increasing pressure on producers, mills and distributors whose operations are closely tied to US demand.

OSB trade follows the same direction

Canadian oriented strand board exports also weakened. OSB shipments to the United States fell 14% year on year to 2.5 million cubic metres in January-June 2026. Export value decreased 27% to $695 million, and the average export price declined 16% to $283 per cubic metre, Lesprom Analytics reported.

The parallel fall in lumber and OSB trade matters because the two products serve major segments of US residential and commercial construction. Lower Canadian export earnings can affect mill utilization, procurement of timber and investment decisions across producing regions. For US buyers, reduced values may provide cheaper material, but tariff uncertainty complicates purchasing, inventory and contract planning.

The figures also underline Canada’s continued dependence on the American market for forest-products sales. Supply chains across the border include timber producers, sawmills, panel plants, wholesalers and building-material distributors. New restrictions or retaliatory measures could therefore affect companies on both sides, even when the immediate customs burden falls on the exporter or importer.

Failed talks increase tariff risk

US-Canada tariff negotiations collapsed after the two governments gave conflicting accounts of the breakdown. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada left the talks and rejected a proposed agreement. Prime Minister Mark Carney said US negotiators introduced new conditions that Canada considered unfair and harmful to its sovereignty.

The United States subsequently imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, equivalent to about 5% of Canada’s exports to the US. Canada plans dollar-for-dollar countertariffs on US steel, dairy products and appliances on September 8, Carney said. The dispute follows earlier US sectoral tariffs of as much as 50% on automobiles, steel, aluminum and forestry products, as well as Canadian retaliation.

The Wall Street Journal reported that negotiators had been close to reducing US steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% from 50% and automotive tariffs to 15% from 25%. Disputes over downstream aluminum tariffs and steel import quotas disrupted the prospective agreement, according to people familiar with the talks. With annual bilateral trade approaching $900 billion, the failure leaves Canadian forest-products exporters exposed to further policy changes while falling prices are already reducing revenue faster than volumes.

Source: shev.io