Current market trends

European markets for Nordic sawn timber remain subdued across all tracked regions, with price assessments reflecting minimal movement in recent months. Germany, France, Benelux and the United Kingdom show largely flat trends, indicating a lack of pricing momentum. This stagnation is primarily driven by sluggish demand from construction sectors that continue to face headwinds, keeping buyers cautious and limiting opportunities for price appreciation.

In Germany, spruce sawfalling 44-50×150 mm held steady at €310-325 ($364-381) per cubic meter throughout the three-month period, while France saw prices for the same dimension maintain at €290-325 per cubic meter in October and November after a slight softening from €295-325 per cubic meter in September.

The UK market for spruce sawfalling 44-50×150 mm similarly stabilized at €295-315 per cubic meter in October and November following a marginal decline from €300-320 per cubic meter in September, and Benelux prices for spruce sawfalling 47×150 mm held at €305-320 per cubic meter in October and November after easing from €310-320 per cubic meter in September.

As is typical for the season, demand has quieted down in November, with activity levels declining as the year draws to a close. Prices in France and Germany remain largely similar. Some prices received were above the assessed ranges and these typically reflect small batch transactions.

The persistent weakness in demand highlights the structural challenges facing the European sawn timber industry, where high operational costs continue to squeeze margins despite relatively stable pricing. Without meaningful recovery in construction activity, Nordic exporters face limited prospects for demand-driven price increases in the near term, according to sources.

Modest recovery with persistent headwinds
The European softwood sawn timber market showed tentative signs of stabilization during this period, though conditions remained challenging. According to industry presentations at the October 2025 International Softwood Conference in Oslo, the first half of 2025 had offered “renewed hope” with increasing exports and consumption in some markets, but summer demand proved disappointing. The consensus suggested that autumn would not bring strong improvements either, reflecting the market’s fragile recovery trajectory from a weak base.

A similar mood prevailed at a stakeholder seminar organized by the association of Finnish Sawmills in late November. While the global trade war has showed some signs of easing recently, many risks connected to that directly, as well as its fallout, persist. In the longer term, increased demand is expected, but that does not give much slack to sawmills currently struggling with rising costs and subdued demand. Multiple EU-level and national environmental policies also create difficulties and increase costs and risks for the supply of sawn timber raw material.

Market conditions varied significantly across Europe. While Spain showed strong construction expansion and the Netherlands demonstrated solid demand for premium products, Germany and France experienced subdued construction activity. Building permits remained well below 2021 levels, particularly in Central Europe, though indicators suggested the construction downturn had bottomed out by October with slight improvement emerging in permit issuance.

Pine market: Oversupply pressures
The pine market faces significant headwinds due to oversupply conditions. This oversupply is exacerbated by the limited substitutability of pine for spruce in some applications. While pine can theoretically replace spruce in structural applications, the transition faces considerable resistance by users.

This is in part because of convention — spruce is firmly embedded in customer practices and there is a reluctance to change. However, sources told Fastmarkets that in some markets that has started to change and that some importers of Nordic sawn timber are beginning to offer mixed-species lots to customers such as larger builders.

However, focused strategies to sell pine as an option are yet to be seen in the market. Sources said at the moment, sellers usually offer pine at cheaper prices in order to liquidate stocks. Some end users also expect pine prices to be at a discount to spruce prices, they added. Although some sellers do not see major differences in quality between the two species in many applications, buyers’ perceptions differ.

High wood costs continue: Shortages in Central Europe
A critical issue dominating the period was the persistent divergence between raw material and product prices. In the Nordic region, sawlog prices had surged dramatically — Swedish spruce sawlogs in southern Sweden climbed to over 1,400 Swedish kronor ($151) per cubic meter by the second quarter of 2025, more than doubling since 2019 — yet sawn timber prices failed to keep pace. This margin squeeze contributed to widespread unprofitability across the industry despite continued capital investments.

Finnish sawlog prices experienced solid strengthening starting in early 2024, according to Luke monthly statistics. However, stumpage prices for both pine and spruce sawlogs have decreased since their nominal all-time highs in June 2025, by around 9% and 8% respectively, to approximately €76 for pine and €79 for spruce in October. However, they are still clearly above the previous five-year averages, by 16% for pine and 14% for spruce.

Recent roundwood trade data shows that after the price drop, prices are stabilizing and may remain at this level for a while and could provide some relief from record-high levels in the first half of 2025. However, the sawmilling industry still sees the sawlog price levels as being high compared with the prices of sawn timber.

German producers faced similar pressures due to acute local whitewood log shortages, which paradoxically made Nordic sawn timber competitive for German buyers seeking alternatives. According to sources, German sawn timber prices were ruling at a premium of €50-60 per cubic meter to Nordic prices.

Market developments: Consolidation and asset reviews
he European sawn timber sector is witnessing significant restructuring as major market participants respond to market pressures. Stora Enso announced plans to demerge its Swedish forest assets into a separate company and is reviewing its Central European sawmill and engineered wood operations for potential divestment.

Meanwhile, UK timber distributor National Timber Group, which operates the Arnold Laver and Thornbridge Timber brands, entered administration, highlighting the financial pressures facing downstream traders in a market characterized by thin margins and weak demand.

The challenging market is taking its toll as Bergkvist Siljan announced that it will close its 115,000 cubic meters per year Mora sawmill in central Sweden in March 2026, citing difficult market conditions for sawn timber, alongside wood costs having more than doubled over the past five years, as the main reasons.

International markets: Algeria reopening
Outside Europe, the Algerian market has been stuck for approximately half a year but is now showing signs of reopening, with import licenses being granted to companies. The situation had been complicated by government efforts to restrict currency outflows, creating significant challenges for trade, sources said. The semi-annual trading cycle in this market presents ongoing difficulties, but the recent reopening provides a potential outlet for Nordic exporters seeking alternatives to weak European demand.

EUDR enforcement timeline revised with simplifications
The European Parliament approved significant revisions to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on November 26, including a one-year enforcement delay. The EUDR will now take effect on December 30, 2026, for large operators and June 30, 2027, for smaller companies. Key simplifications include requiring only the first operator placing products in the EU market to submit due diligence statements, eliminating duplicate reporting for downstream traders. However, geolocation requirements — mandating precise forest coordinates alongside tree species and harvest dates — remain a concern for North American exporters that source from multiple suppliers. This challenge is reflected in declining US sawn timber exports to Europe, which fell from 144.9 million board feet in 2000 to just 13.8 million board feet in 2024, potentially making Europe an increasingly marginal market for North American producers.

First quarter 2026 outlook
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, new deals are beginning to emerge, though progress remains slow — slower than anticipated, market sources said. Supply continues to be available, but consumption remains subdued, creating a challenging environment for price increases. Some expect the market to revive in the first half of 2026, and if it does, it could rapidly change market conditions.

Source:  fastmarkets.com