Timber prices in the USA rise to a 3-year high. This is due to the tariffs of 40% on Canadian timber imports. European suppliers are still benefiting from the price increase and the huge supply gap. But this could change quickly.

Lumber prices in the USA have risen to USD 680 per thousand board feet, continuing their two-and-a-half-year high. This is due to the additional tariffs announced for lumber imports into the USA.

The increases planned by the US administration could cause Canadian lumber tariffs to rise from around 15 % to almost 40 %. This would also be an extremely price-driving factor for the US market, as Canada supplies around 25 % of US sawn timber - even if some of the production has apparently been relocated to the south of the USA, say analysts.

The ongoing supply bottlenecks - exacerbated by transport delays and hoarding purchases - are causing sawn timber prices to rise further amid continued uncertainty on the markets. At the same time, supply remains tight as production cuts in Canada - due to sawmill closures - have reduced North American softwood lumber capacity by 3.1 billion board feet, according to Tradingeconomics analysts.

As a result, construction companies have already stockpiled lumber, a strategy that has already driven up prices on the US domestic market. In anticipation of further trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions, sawmills in the US have already increased prices by 25 to 65%, setting the price spiral in motion.

Timber shortage in the USA - imports from Europe?
The consequences of the tariff increases for the US lumber market would be serious. On 13 August 2024, the US Department of Commerce published the results of its fifth annual administrative review of the anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) on Canadian lumber exports.
 
The review set a new combined duty rate of 14.54% for most Canadian lumber exports, nearly doubling the previous rate of 8.05%.
 
ResourceWise analysts estimated that approximately 1.3 billion board feet of lumber capacity in British Columbia is at risk due to the tariffs. The additional costs make it almost impossible for Canadian producers to sell lumber profitably to the US.
 
Canada supplies up to 30% of the USA's softwood lumber, a share that America can only replace with difficulty. Existing tariffs on Canadian lumber have already helped to increase US production.
 
But to fully replace foreign imports would require the construction of several new sawmills to convert lumber into building materials, which ‘would run into all kinds of constraints,’ said Crystal Gauvin, senior economist at Forest Economic Advisors.

Germany also affected by new tariffs?
In the past, when US demand could not be met in Canada, Pacific Northwest (PNW) lumber producers stepped in to fill the gap, followed by imports from Scandinavia and Europe (Germany).
 
Currently, European lumber imports account for about 6% of US lumber demand. Both PNW producers and European exporters could benefit from higher tariffs. Unless European exporters are also subject to additional tariffs in the future. On 21 February, Trump instructed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to reopen investigations aimed at imposing tariffs on imports from countries that levy digital services taxes on US technology companies.
 
Canada would again be in the firing line for such penalties, as would European countries such as France, the UK, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany, as well as India and Turkey. Trump also ordered new steps within 90 days to improve the domestic timber supply by simplifying the permitting process for timber harvesting on public lands.
 
The order requires new agency guidelines. Peter Navarro, White House trade adviser, said the timber import investigation will counter the actions of major timber exporters such as Canada, Germany and Brazil.
 
Source: agrarheute.com