IndexBox has just published a new report: China - Saw Logs
And Veneer Logs - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and
Insights.
The article discusses the rising demand for saw logs and veneer
logs in China, leading to an anticipated upward consumption
trend over the next decade. The market performance is forecasted
to increase slightly, with a projected CAGR of +0.3% in volume
terms and +1.1% in value terms from 2024 to 2035. By the end of
2035, the market volume is expected to reach 214M cubic meters
and market value to reach $58.5B (in nominal wholesale prices).
Market Forecast
Driven by rising demand for saw logs and veneer logs in China,
the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over
the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to
increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the
period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market
volume to 214M cubic meters by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an
anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035,
which is projected to bring the market value to $58.5B (in
nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
China's Consumption of Saw Logs And Veneer Logs
For the third consecutive year, China recorded decline in
consumption of saw logs and veneer logs, which decreased by
-0.9% to 206M cubic meters in 2024. Overall, consumption showed
a slight reduction. Over the period under review, consumption
reached the maximum volume at 262M cubic meters in 2018;
however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain
momentum.
The size of the market for saw logs and veneer logs in China
reached $52B in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the
previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of
producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail
marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included
in the final consumer price). Over the period under review,
consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Saw logs and
veneer logs consumption peaked at $61.6B in 2018; however, from
2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Type
Saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) (151M cubic meters)
constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption,
accounting for 73% of total volume. Moreover, saw logs and
veneer logs (non-coniferous) exceeded the figures recorded for
the second-largest type, saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
(55M cubic meters), threefold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume
of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) consumption was
relatively modest.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous)
($44.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the
ranking was taken by saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
($7.9B).
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value
of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) market was
relatively modest.
Production
China's Production of Saw Logs And Veneer Logs
In 2024, the amount of saw logs and veneer logs produced in
China stood at 170M cubic meters, remaining stable against 2023
figures. In general, production continues to indicate a
relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most
rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 13%. Saw
logs and veneer logs production peaked in 2024 and is expected
to retain growth in the immediate term.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs production stood at
$42.9B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value
increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024;
the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat
noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent
rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume
increased by 12%. Saw logs and veneer logs production peaked at
$44.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production stood at
a somewhat lower figure.
Production By Type
Saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) (141M cubic meters)
constituted the product with the largest volume of production,
comprising approx. 83% of total volume. Moreover, saw logs and
veneer logs (non-coniferous) exceeded the figures recorded for
the second-largest type, saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
(29M cubic meters), fivefold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of
the volume of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous)
production was relatively modest.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous)
($38.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the
ranking was held by saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
($4.5B).
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value
of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) production was
relatively modest.
Imports
China's Imports of Saw Logs And Veneer Logs For the third
consecutive year, China recorded decline in supplies from abroad
of saw logs and veneer logs, which decreased by -5.1% to 36M
cubic meters in 2024. In general, imports continue to indicate a
abrupt downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in
2016 with an increase of 25%. Over the period under review,
imports reached the peak figure at 92M cubic meters in 2018;
however, from 2019 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs imports shrank modestly
to $6.1B in 2024. Overall, imports showed a perceptible
contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in
2021 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. Over the
period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $11.8B
in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports remained at a lower
figure.
Imports By Country
In 2023, New Zealand (18M cubic meters) constituted the largest
supplier of saw logs and veneer logs to China, with a 47% share
of total imports. Moreover, saw logs and veneer logs imports
from New Zealand exceeded the figures recorded by the
second-largest supplier, Germany (3.6M cubic meters), fivefold.
Papua New Guinea (2.3M cubic meters) ranked third in terms of
total imports with a 6% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of
volume from New Zealand totaled -1.2%. The remaining supplying
countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports
growth: Germany (+23.9% per year) and Papua New Guinea (-5.1%
per year).
In value terms, New Zealand ($2.2B) constituted the largest
supplier of saw logs and veneer logs to China, comprising 35% of
total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by
the United States ($697M), with an 11% share of total imports.
It was followed by Germany, with a 9.1% share.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of
value from New Zealand totaled +3.0%. The remaining supplying
countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports
growth: the United States (-5.6% per year) and Germany (+26.0%
per year).
Imports By Type
In 2024, saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) (26M cubic
meters) constituted the largest type of saw logs and veneer logs
supplied to China, accounting for a 72% share of total imports.
Moreover, saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) exceeded the
figures recorded for the second-largest type, saw logs and
veneer logs (non-coniferous) (10M cubic meters), threefold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume
of saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous) imports totaled -7.0%.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs with the largest
imports in China were saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
($3.4B) and saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) ($2.8B).
Among the main product categories, saw logs and veneer logs
(coniferous), with a CAGR of -3.6%, recorded the highest rates
of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period
under review.
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average import price for saw logs and veneer logs
amounted to $170 per cubic meter, with an increase of 1.6%
against the previous year. Over the period under review, import
price indicated a measured expansion from 2013 to 2024: its
price increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last
eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some
noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed
period. Based on 2024 figures, saw logs and veneer logs import
price decreased by -12.0% against 2022 indices. The most
prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average
import price increased by 37%. The import price peaked at $193
per cubic meter in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import
prices failed to regain momentum.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst
the major supplied products. In 2024, the product with the
highest price was saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous)
($276 per cubic meter), while the price for saw logs and veneer
logs (coniferous) totaled $130 per cubic meter.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of
prices was attained by saw logs and veneer logs (coniferous)
(+3.7%).
Import Prices By Country
In 2023, the average import price for saw logs and veneer logs
amounted to $168 per cubic meter, which is down by -13.4%
against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated
noticeable growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an
average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend
pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being
recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate
of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 37%. The import
price peaked at $193 per cubic meter in 2022, and then
contracted in the following year.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top
importers, the country with the highest price was Australia
($698 per cubic meter), while the price for Japan ($120 per
cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of
prices was attained by Australia (+25.9%), while the prices for
the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of
growth.
Exports
China's Exports of Saw Logs And Veneer Logs
In 2024, approx. 12K cubic meters of saw logs and veneer logs
were exported from China; increasing by 127% compared with the
year before. Over the period under review, exports, however,
showed a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth
was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 496%. As a result, the
exports attained the peak of 153K cubic meters. From 2018 to
2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs exports skyrocketed to
$4.4M in 2024. Overall, exports, however, showed a perceptible
slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an
increase of 620%. The exports peaked at $30M in 2017; however,
from 2018 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
Exports By Country
Vietnam (5.5K cubic meters) was the main destination for saw
logs and veneer logs exports from China, with a approx. 100%
share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume to
Vietnam amounted to -12.0%.
In value terms, Vietnam ($2.3M) also remains the key foreign
market for saw logs and veneer logs exports from China.
From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value to
Vietnam amounted to -9.6%.
Exports By Type
Saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) (12K cubic meters) was
the largest type of saw logs and veneer logs exported from
China, with a approx. 100% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of
the volume of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) exports
totaled -4.2%.
In value terms, saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous)
($4.4M) also remains the largest type of saw logs and veneer
logs exported from China.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of
the value of saw logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) exports
amounted to -3.7%.
Export Prices By Type
The average export price for saw logs and veneer logs stood at
$354 per cubic meter in 2024, declining by -15.6% against the
previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a
relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth
was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by
421% against the previous year. As a result, the export price
reached the peak level of $1.2 thousand per cubic meter. From
2017 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain
momentum.
As there is only one major exported type of saw logs and veneer
logs, the average price level is determined by prices for saw
logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous).
From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for saw
logs and veneer logs (non-coniferous) amounted to +0.5% per
year.
Export Prices By Country
The average export price for saw logs and veneer logs stood at
$419 per cubic meter in 2023, rising by 10% against the previous
year. Overall, the export price enjoyed a tangible increase. The
pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the average
export price increased by 421%. As a result, the export price
reached the peak level of $1.2 thousand per cubic meter. From
2017 to 2023, the average export prices remained at a somewhat
lower figure.
As there is only one major export destination, the average price
level is determined by prices for Vietnam.
From 2013 to 2023, the rate of growth in terms of prices for
Vietnam amounted to +2.8% per year.
Source:
IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
