The tension between wood harvesting and food production is likely to only grow between now and the end of the century, a University of Cambridge research paper predicts.

Growing tensions between wood and food production could see forests the size of India being lost between now and the century’s end.

A study from University of Cambridge researchers identifies the tensions that exist with a finite supply of land that can produce both food and timber.

The report’s authors note that as climate change worsens and agriculture expands northwards (in the northern hemisphere), timber production land is facing increasing pressure to be converted to food production.

Their worst-case scenario has a quarter of the world’s existing forested land area – equivalent to India’s landmass – evolving to be more suited to agriculture. In their best-case scenario, the researchers say there will be major changes in what regions are ideal for timber and crop production.

The authors note the contrast between cropping cycles for forestry versus food crops, urging governments to start thinking about their timber needs 50 years ahead – meaning if timber is to be needed then, it has to be planted today.

The vast majority of timber-producing forests most vulnerable to the land use change are in the northern hemisphere. Russia is seen as a key driver of a move out of timber and into food production, particularly since the Ukraine war started.

The report notes development of mass timber buildings, biomass and cellulosic products are all expected to grow demand for round wood by 49% between now and 2050.

The study employed satellite data to identify intensive forestry activity globally and predicted land use changes for key crops of rice, wheat, maize, soy and potatoes between now and 2100.

Globally, timber is one of the world’s most traded commodities, but the increased impact of climate change has put large areas of the northern hemisphere’s forests under disease and fire pressure, compounded by the slow growth patterns typical of many regions.

The researchers note that with wood becoming more integrated into lives, there is a need to develop strategies to ensure wood and food security in future years.

Yvette Dickinson, portfolio leader for Scion’s forests design project, said the agency is exploring multiple solutions to the food-timber tension.

One project is aimed at reducing the risk to the next generation of silvopastoral systems, and has three-year funding for research to explore the multiple benefits coming from integrating trees into farming.

“By integrating trees into farming, creating silvopastoral systems, there is potential for wood production and carbon sequestration, but also benefits for the farm by improving animal welfare under extreme weather, protecting soil and water, and providing economic resilience through balancing multiple income streams.”

She said there should be no longer “either-or” thinking, and instead integrating land uses together.

Source: farmersweekly.co.nz