Exports of Russian sawn timber to Turkey have tripled since the beginning of 2024. Experts attribute the growth of supplies to the reconstruction of Turkish cities after the earthquake, but do not rule out re-exports to the EU.

According to the federal forestry institution Roslesinforg, in early 2024, Turkey became one of the top three largest buyers of Russian sawn timber for the first time. Supplies of sawn timber from Russia to Turkey in January-March 2024 increased to 292.2 thousand m3. Thus, exports to this country increased 3.2 times compared to the same period last year, when it was estimated at 89.8 thousand m3. Until 2023, several years during the first quarters of the year, the country purchased less than 20 thousand m3 of sawn timber.

Reasons for increased supplies

Roslesinforg attributes the increase in the volume of sawn timber exports to Turkey to the increased demand for them against the backdrop of last year's natural disaster - an earthquake. Now new logistic routes are being worked out to speed up the delivery of timber cargoes from Russia to Turkey.

‘The growth in demand for sawn timber is really being felt, especially after the tragic earthquake in Turkey,’ confirms Dmitry Beresnev, Vice President for Commercial Operations at Segezha Group. Elena Varlamova, director of the business and asset valuation department of the consulting company NEO, also speaks about the same.

‘The interest in purchasing sawn timber from Russia is also due to the construction of large-scale infrastructure projects,’ adds Roslesinforg. At the same time, according to Mr Beresnev, sales of laminated wooden structures and CLT-panels are growing - they are used for implementation of housing projects, construction of recreational complexes, hotels, cafes and restaurants.

There is another version of Turkey's increased purchases. In January-February 2024, according to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, exports of Russian sawn timber fell by 24.8% to 11.9 thousand m3. The value of exports fell 34.9%, to $3.1 million, and the average price fell 13.4%, to $258.7 per m3. Turkish customs records the volumes that crossed the country's border.

The goods, however, may be heading from a Turkish customs warehouse to a third country. Until 2022, Russia was the largest supplier of sawn timber to Europe. In April 2022, the EU included an embargo on timber and timber products in the fifth package of anti-Russian sanctions. The European Commission estimated the value of timber products caught by the restrictions at €3.16bn, or 2% of total imports of Russian goods into the EU. After the imposition of sanctions on Russian timber, the EU switched to purchasing it from the US and Turkey.

Who buys sawn timber from Russia

Overall, sawn timber exports from Russia in the first quarter of 2024 totalled 4.4 million m3. The largest importer was China, which purchased 2.6 million m3, according to calculations by Roslesinforg. The Celestial Empire has been and remains the main destination for Russian sawn timber supplies.

However, in the first quarter of 2024, exports of Russian sawn timber to China fell by 11.1 per cent year-on-year. For the whole of 2023, the volume of purchases totalled 13.08 million m3. Roslesinforg explained the current dynamics by sufficient stocks in warehouses and a general decline in China's imports.

The second place in terms of supplies, as in the first quarter of 2023, was taken by Uzbekistan. However, exports to this country also decreased - from 493.5 thousand to 375.6 thousand m3. This drop was due to a decline in domestic demand and redistribution of purchases from sawn timber to other woodworking products, primarily wood-based panels.

Iran (165.7 thousand m3) and Hong Kong (133.1 thousand m3) were also among the five largest importers. Major buyers include Kazakhstan (123.3 thousand m3), Tajikistan (105.4 thousand m3), Japan (89.7 thousand m3), Azerbaijan (66.6 thousand m3) and Kyrgyzstan (59.7 thousand m3).

In 2022, European countries - Estonia and Finland - were also on this list, but after the imposition of sanctions, only Asian countries and Iran remained among the main buyers of Russian timber in 2023.

The European market, of course, could not be replaced by other markets, neither in terms of volumes, nor in terms of prices, nor in terms of sales margin, according to Igor Novoselov, a consultant at WhatWood, an industry analytical agency. Approximately 4.4 million m3 of sawn timber was supplied from Russia to the EU.

Source: Roslesinforg