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Report from
North America
Commerce Department rules on countervailing duties
for hardwood plywood
The US Department of Commerce has released its
preliminary affirmative countervailing duty findings on
hardwood and decorative plywood after identifying
subsidies provided by the governments of China,
Indonesia and Vietnam.
Commerce calculated preliminary countervailing duties of
81.34% on imports from China, 2.40% to 128.66% on
imports from Indonesia, and 4.37% to 26.75% on imports
from Vietnam. These rates are being added to existing
tariffs on products from these countries and began being
charged upon the decision’s publication in the Federal
Register.
In addition, preliminary antidumping rates are scheduled
to be announced in late February 2026. Final rulings are
expected in early May. US Customs and Border Protection
(CBP) is now collecting preliminary duties on entries of
hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia,
and Vietnam.
Commerce also found that critical circumstances exist
with respect to imports of hardwood and decorative
plywood from China.
As a result, duties will be collected on entries of hardwood
and decorative plywood from China that were entered on
or after 90 days before publication of the preliminary
determination.
Commerce’s countervailing duty investigations will
continue over the coming months with the agency further
investigating subsidies, including newly alleged subsidy
programmes received by the Chinese, Indonesian, and
Vietnamese industries. Commerce’s final determination is
currently scheduled for early May 2026.
Commerce is also simultaneously investigating
antidumping duty allegations on hardwood and decorative
plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The
preliminary antidumping rates are scheduled to be
announced in late February 2026.
See:
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-
industry-news/commerce-department-rules-favor-preliminary-
countervailing-duties
and
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/22/2026-
01185/hardwood-and-decorative-plywood-from-the-peoples-
republic-of-china-preliminary-affirmative
Housing starts fall to lowest point since 2020
US residential construction in October fell to its lowest
point since May 2020 according to the US Census Bureau.
The Bureau released September and October housing data
on 9 January as it works to catch up on data reporting
delayed by last year’s government shutdown.
October housing starts declined 4.6% sequentially from
September and 7.8% year-over-year. Annually, single-
family starts fell 7.8% nationally to 874,000 and starts on
units in buildings with five units or more fell by 10.8%.
Widening pockets of demand over the past year led to an
overbuild of speculative homebuilder inventory in the ,
formerly booming, Sun Belt South and Mountain West
markets. Builders hit the brakes on new production to reset
the supply-and-demand balance.
Early indicators suggest that 2026 could be another
sluggish year for new home construction, particularly for
builders and multifamily developers, who face significant
challenges, declines in sales prices and compressed profit
margins as they work through their existing inventory.
The Sun Belt, typically the nation’s most active region for
new residential construction, is particularly challenging for
homebuilders who ramped up speculative construction too
aggressively in the wake of the COVID pandemic.
Now, they’re stuck trying to move that existing inventory
which tends to lose value the longer it remains unsold.
This oversupply was the primary reason the large metro
areas that experienced the largest declines in home prices
last year were in the Sun Belt, led by Austin, Tampa,
Miami, Orlando, and Dallas.
The number of single-family homes under construction in
October was down 7.0% annually, but the South and West
were the most challenged with double-digit drops. The
Midwest was the strongest region, with a 2.2% increase.
In Canada, housing starts rose 5.6% in 2025 to 259,028
units as starts increased more than expected in December,
data from the national housing agency showed. The
seasonally adjusted annualized rate increased by 11% over
November according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation.
See: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
and
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-starts-fall-to-
lowest-point-since-2020-led-by-a-stall-in-the-sun-belt/
Home sales end 2025 on a strong note as prices eased
Sales of previously owned homes in December rose to a
seasonally-adjusted, annualised rate of 4.35 million units,
a 5.1% increase from November, according to the National
Association of Realtors (NAR). That was higher than
analysts' expectations for a gain of 2%. Sales were 1.4%
higher than a year earlier. For the full year, there were
4.06 million existing home sales, unchanged from 2024.
"2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by
record-high home prices and historically low home sales,"
said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NAR.
"However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began
improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home
price growth."
Homes in the Northeast saw a 2.0% increase in sales
month over month to an annual rate of 520,000, down
1.9% from last December. The Midwest also saw a 2.0%
increase in sales month over month to an annual rate of 1
million, unchanged from last December. In the South,
sales increased 6.9% month over month to an annual rate
of 2.02 million, up 3.6% from last December. And sales in
the West rose 6.6% month over month for an annual rate
of 810,000, unchanged from last December.
See: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-
report-shows-5-1-increase-in-december
Builder confidence slumped at the beginning of 2026
Builder confidence moved lower to start the year as
affordability concerns continue to weigh heavily with
buyers and builders continue to contend with rising
construction costs. Builder confidence in the market for
newly built single-family homes fell two points to 37 in
January, according to National Association of Home
Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
(HMI) data.
“While the upper end of the housing market is holding
steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the
lower and mid-range sectors,” said NAHB Chairman
Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from North
Carolina.
“Buyers are concerned about high home prices and
mortgage rates, with downpayments particularly
challenging given elevated price to income ratios.”
See:
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-
industry-news/builder-confidence-slumps-beginning-2026-due-
affordability-concerns
US GDP grew at a blistering 4.3% pace in Q3
The US economy grew at a robust 4.3% annual pace in the
third quarter of 2025, marking the strongest growth in two
years.
The growth in gross domestic product, the nation's output
of goods and services, between July and September far
outstripped the forecast for 3% growth, according to
economists polled by financial data firm FactSet. The
latest figure, released by the Commerce Department, also
reflects a healthy jump from the second quarter's
annualized growth of 3.8%.
Accelerated consumer spending, along with an upswing in
exports and government outlays, helped propel economic
growth in the third quarter, the Commerce Department
said. Despite widespread public concerns about the
economy, consumers are continuing to open their wallets.
Although GDP growth was surprisingly strong, inflation
ticked higher from the previous quarter. The personal
consumption expenditure (PCE) index, a key barometer of
inflation and consumer spending, rose at a 2.8% annual
pace in the third quarter, compared with 2.1% between
April and June.
Economists expect GDP growth to slow in the fourth
quarter, citing the impact of the 43-day government
shutdown.
See: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-
3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits
US added 50,000 jobs in December, capping off a year
of uncertainty
The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, a
moderate improvement after hiring fell sharply in October
and rebounded only slightly in November.
After posting an average of only 48,000 jobs per month,
after revisions, through the first 11 months of the year, the
employment numbers could be a sign that the worst has
passed. Small gains in December employment were seen
in health care and food services, while employment
showed little or no change over the month in other major
industries, including construction and manufacturing.
For the year 2025, the economy gained just 584,000 jobs,
sharply lower than the more than 2 million added in 2024.
It's the smallest annual gain since the COVID-19
pandemic decimated the job market in 2020. The
economy generated an average of 111,000 jobs a month in
the first three months of 2025—but that pace dropped to
just 11,000 in the three months ended in August, before
rebounding slightly to 22,000 in November.
See: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Consumer sentiment edges higher
Consumers’ mood improved slightly in January this year
yet Americans remain mired in anxiety about affordability
and sluggish hiring the University of Michigan’s latest
survey indicated. The consumer-confidence index landed
at 54 in its preliminary January reading, versus 52.9 last
month. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal
were expecting the index to inch up to 53.4.
Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said “Although
consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually
receding they remain guarded about the overall strength of
business conditions and labour markets”. Consumers’
inflation expectations remained mostly in sync with recent
readings. Year-ahead inflation predictions held steady,
while long-run expectations edged slightly higher.
See: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Manufacturing shrinks for 10th consecutive month
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted
in December for the 10th consecutive month say the
nation's supply executives in the latest ISM Manufacturing
PMI Report.
Of the 18 industries surveyed by ISM, 15 reported
contraction in December with Wood Products ranked
second in contraction behind only Apparel, Leather &
Allied Products. Only two industries tracked reported
growth, Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
and Computer & Electronic Products.
The Furniture and Related Products industry reported
neither growth nor contraction for the month.
"Morale is very low across manufacturing in general,"
says an Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components
respondent to the report. "The cost of living is very high,
and component costs are increasing with folks citing
tariffs and other price increases. Absenteeism is worse
around the holidays, and sales were lower than we
expected for November. So, things look a bit bleak
overall."
See:
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-
industry-news/manufacturing-pmi-479-tenth-consecutive-month-
overall-contractions
Cabinet sales continued falling in November
Cabinet manufacturers reported overall cabinet sales fell
12% in November and were down 12% compared to the
same month in 2024 with all three segments reporting year
on year losses, according to the Kitchen Cabinet
Manufacturers Association's November Trend of Business
report.
The 51 responding companies in the survey reported
overall sales of US$166.7 million for November 2025. In
the year on year comparison, custom sales were down
3.0% to US$49.4 million, semi-custom dropped 15.0% to
US$90.7 million, and stock sales fell 14.5%, to US$26.6
million. Respondents reported cabinet quantity for the
month fell 16.8% compared to November 2024 figures.
For the month-over-month sales comparison, survey
respondents reported decreases in custom, semi-custom,
and stock sales. Custom sales dropped 8.8%, semi-custom
fell 13.4%, and stock sales decreased 14.6% in November
compared to October figures. Cabinet quantity dropped
13.4% from the previous month.
See: https://kcma.org/insights/november-2025-trend-business-
report
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-
industry-news/november-cabinet-sales-continue-drop-kcma-
trend-business-report
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