Japan
Wood Products Prices
Dollar Exchange Rates of 25th
Jan
2025
Japan Yen 156.00
Reports From Japan
Interest rates moved to to
the highest level since 2008
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has raised interest rates to the
highest level since 2008 and successfully avoided market
turmoil by carefully signaling this plan to the financial
market. The 25-basis-point move marks the first rate
increase since July and takes rates to their highest level in
17 years.
BoJ Deputy Govenor, Ryozo Himino, is reported as saying
the Bank’s decisions are determined by analysing the
overall economic situation and the need for confidence in
wage-rise momentum going into annual spring-wage
negotiations.
Recent price data show inflation at about the BoJ’s 2%
target. Government data released hours before the rate
increase decision showed consumer prices, excluding
volatile food prices, rose last year at an average rate of
2.5%, marking the third straight year of increase.
The consumer price index (CPI), excluding food, for
December alone showed a 3% rise. Another long-term
concern was wage growth. The annual spring wage
negotiations began in late January with the Japanese
Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) tabling wage-increase
targets of more than 6% for smaller enterprises and more
than 5% for large companies.
The 6% increases for smaller companies in Japan will be
tough and some analysts and business leaders argue not
achieving this target would leave many workers
falling further behind as inflation eats away the value of
earnings.
See: https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2025012700771/japan-
labor-leader-seeks-strong-wage-hikes-at-smaller-biz.html
Companies brace for negative effect of US tariffs
Japanese businesses are trying to assess the possible
consequences from the policy changes the new US
administration has pledged to implement, especially with
regard to tariffs. More than 70% of nearly 700 US based
Japanese companies surveyed by the Japan External Trade
Organisation said that they expect a negative impact from
any additional tariffs imposed by the new administration.
Japanese economists, legal experts and business leaders
concur that additional tariffs, whether directly aimed at
Japan or not, could hurt Japan’s export-reliant machinery
and automobile sectors and undermine the global
economy.
See:
https://www.jetro.go.jp/news/releases/2025/70085ec732820931.h
tml
and
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/01/20/economy/tru
mp-tariffs-impact/
Bankruptcies up 22% in the first half of 2024
In its monthly report for January the Cabinet Office said
the economy is "recovering at a moderate pace, although
there has been a pause in some sectors”. This was the
same language used for the sixth consecutive month.
On the downside the Cabinet Office revised upward its
evaluation for corporate bankruptcies for the first time
since September 2024 saying the number of business
failures has been "almost flat," replacing the description
the wording that the pace of failures was "slowing."
The number of bankruptcies in the first half of 2024 was
4,887, up 22%, marking the second consecutive year in
which the number of bankruptcies rose. The service sector
saw 2,547 businesses fail, an increase of 21%.
Retailers followed with a rise of 17% and construction saw
an increase of 13%. The main problem was businesses
found it hard to pass on rising material and labour costs in
their prices. Severe worker shortages were also a problem.
Another cause of business failures is the problem
companies have in repaying interest-free loans provided
by the government as part of Covid relief measures.
See: https://www.tdb-
en.jp/news_reports/backnumber/brr24kami.html
and
See:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250123/p2g/00m/0bu/0530
00c
The total value of machinery orders received by 280
manufacturers operating in Japan decreased by 14% in
November from the previous month. Private-sector
machinery orders, excluding volatile ones for ships and
those from electric power companies, increased a
seasonally adjusted by 3.4% in November.
One of the largest wooden structures on earth
For the first time members of the media had the
opportunity to view the Japanese government pavilion
ahead of the 2025 World Exposition in Osaka, western
Japan,. The two-story Japan Pavilion covers 13,000 square
meters of floor space making it the largest pavilion at the
EXPO.
The EXPO is scheduled to run for six months from 13
April to 13October. The Grand Ring, a symbol of Expo
2025, is said to be one of the largest wooden structures on
earth. Much of the material comes from timber harvested
in Fukushima Prefecture which was, hit hard by the March
2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.
About 160 countries and territories are due to take part in
the event, based on the theme of "Designing Future
Society for Our Lives."
See: https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/c12207/osaka-
expo%E2%80%99s-iconic-wooden-ring-features-fukushima-
timber.html
Weak yen unattractive to foreign workers
In late January the yen to regained ground against the US
dollar driven mainly by economic uncertainty in the US
and the positive outlook maintained by the Bank of Japan.
However, the weak yen, while boosting exports has a
downside. A depopulating Japan increasingly looks
overseas for the labour industries need. However, it is
becoming increasingly difficult to attract foreign workers
as their payment in yen, which has weakened
considerably, does not compared favourably with what
they can earn at home.
Mortgage rates set to rise
The significant jump in the interest rate to 0.5% will
impact the housing market and has raised concerns among
homeowners about how to prepare for increases in
mortgage payments.
According to a Nikkei-TV Tokyo opinion a majority of the
Japanese public supports the BoJ’s decision to raise the
policy rate to 0.5%. The latest rise lifted the rate to levels
not seen since 2008.
The Bank of Japan's two most recent interest rate
hikes
add roughly 8,000 yen to the average monthly mortgage
payment according to Nikkei calculations.
The impact of the BoJ rate adjustment is likely to be just
the first with some analysts expecting rates to reach as
high as 0.75% by the end of 2025. This potential upward
trend raises serious concerns for homeowners who are
already feeling the strain of increasing housing prices
across Japan, particularly in urban areas.
November 2024 wooden office furniture imports (HS
940330)
Year on year, the value of Japan’s imports of wooden
office furniture in November 2024 rose around 2% and
month on month there was a slight gain building on the
rise in the value of imports seen in October.
China accounted for most of wooden office furniture
(HS940330) imported to Japan in November at around
82%, maintaining the expanded share of the value of
imports recorded in October.
The other main shippers in November were Malaysia (9%)
and Italy (5%). In November 2024 the value of shipments
from Turkey and Poland captured a small share of the
value of wooden office furniture imports.
As was the case in October 2024 the value of shipments
from the Philippines accounted for 50% of the total value
of HS940340 imports with imports from Vietnam
accounted for 26%, a drop from the over 30% of the value
of November import. The third ranked supplier in
November was Germany, taking a 7% share of the value
of November imports. November arrivals from China
accounted for 6% of imports, around the same level as in
October.
The year on year value of Japan’s wooden kitchen
furniture imports rose in November, however, compared to
a month earlier the value of November imports fell slightly
after the almost 30% surge seen in October.
November 2024 wooden bedroom furniture imports
(HS 940350)
The value of wooden bedroom furniture (HS940350) in
November 2024 built on the gains seen in the unexpected
rise in the value of October imports, lifting the value of
imports back to levels seen in mid-year. November 2024
import values were up around 9% compared to November
2023 and also up (around 4%) compared to levels in
October.
The top shippers of wooden bedroom furniture to Japan in
November were China (61% share of November import
values), Vietnam (29%) and Malaysia (6%, a rise on a
month earlier).
November 2024 wooden furniture parts imports (HS
940391)
The value of shipments of wooden furniture parts
(HS940391) from just four countries, China, Indonesia,
Vietnam and Malaysia accounted for over 90% of the
value of November imports to Japan. The value of
shipments from China in November accounted for 50% of
the total for the month (up from the previous month)
followed by Indonesia 22% (up from the previous month)
Vietnam (10%) and Malaysia (9%).
As was seen in October, the rise in the value of November
imports was largely due to higher arrivals from China and
Vietnam, the top shippers of HS940391. Twelve shippers
in Europe accounted for just 3% of the value of November
arrivals. For the first time in 2024 the value of shipments
from Papua New Guinea appeared in the list of significant
suppliers of wooden furniture parts.
3D forest surveys
Japan’s Forestry Agency is calling on local governments
to conduct employing aircraft laser to get terrain
information a data obtained can be used for disaster
responses by analysing terrain changes after earthquakes
or heavy rain, in addition to being a tool for forest and
road management. The agency worked with the Geospatial
Information Authority of Japan to conduct a laser survey
for a terrain analysis of the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa
Prefecture after a powerful earthquake caused landslides in
a wide swath of the area in January last year.
See: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/01/06/japan/laser-
forest-terrain-surveys/
Trade news from the Japan Lumber Reports (JLR)
The Japan Lumber Reports (JLR), a subscription trade
journal published every two weeks in English, is
generously allowing the ITTO Tropical Timber Market
Report to reproduce news on the Japanese market
precisely as it appears in the JLR.
For the JLR report please see:
https://jfpj.jp/japan_lumber_reports/
Price hike of cedar crating
Tachikawa Rinsan Co., Ltd. in Hiroshima Prefecture will
raise the price of cedar crating by 3,000 yen, delivered per
cbm, as of February, 2025 because the production cost,
including the distribution cost and the purchasing price, is
20 – 30 % higher than last year.
The company manufactures domestic cedar and NZ radiata
pine crating or pallets. The logistics cost has been rising
since last spring and the purchasing price for a cedar log is
around 16,000 - 17,000 yen, delivered per cbm.
The price of cut cedar lumber is 47,000 – 53,000 yen,
delivered per cbm. 3 or 4 m cedar lumber is around 45,000
– 47,0000 yen, delivered per cbm.
Also, the cost of energy has skyrocketed last year and so is
the labor cost. The company has been struggling with
unprofitability and this is the reason for the price hike. The
company has already explained about the price increase to
the clients.
In Hiroshima Prefecture, Orvis Corporation, which is a
major cedar and NZ crating company, has been working
on raising the price gradually.
North American logs
The North American logs and lumber markets are still
sluggish. Also, the movement of North American logs and
lumber is slow after the winter break. Demand for North
American logs and lumber are firm in some areas but not
in the metropolitan areas. It is hard to say that demand is
recovering.
Precutting companies struggle with lessorders. Usually,
demand in every January through March is low but
demand is especially low this year.
The price of Douglas fir small sized lumber is bullish tone.
Since demand for Douglas fir small sized lumber was low
and consumers changed to purchase domestic lumber last
year, the price of Douglas fir small sized lumber was low.
However, inventories of Douglas fir small sized lumber at
manufacturers and distributors decreased and the arrival
volume of imported Douglas fir lumber decreased. As a
result, the price stopped falling. A Doulgas fir lumber
manufacturer in Japan needs to raise the price because the
selling price in North America was high and the yen was
weak.
There is a possibility that this manufacturer would raise
the price of other kinds Douglas fir lumber. Also, the price
of European and domestic lumber would rise. According
to the precutting companies, if the price of European
laminated redwood beam rose, the price of KD Douglas fir
beam also would rise.
Plywood
At the end of December, 2024, major plywood
manufacturers announced to raise the price of 12 mm 3 x 6
domestic softwood structural plywood by over 1,000 yen,
delivered per sheet in January, 2025. The price was around
950 yen, delivered per sheet in the middle of December,
2024.
However, the price is different in areas because it depends
on the negotiation between plywood manufacturers and
consumers. Inquiries to softwood plywood have been firm
in the middle of January, 2025. There had been a shortage
of trucks in December, 2024 so there might have been an
influence of a shortage of trucks.
There has been an increase in purchasing imported
plywood in December, 2024. It had been the weak yen
since the middle of October, 2024 and the yen depreciated
over 150 yen against the US dollar and also the price of
imported plywood in Japan was about stop decreasing.
The price of 12 mm 3 x 6 painted plywood for concrete
form is around 1,850 yen, delivered per sheet. Form
plywood is around 1,550 yen, delivered per sheet.
Structural plywood is around 1,550 yen, delivered per
sheet. 2.5 mm plywood is around 750 yen, delivered per
sheet. 4 mm plywood is around 930 yen, delivered per
sheet. 5.5 mm plywood is around 1,100 yen, delivered per
sheet.
In Southern Asia, the price of 12 mm 3 x 6 painted
plywood for concrete form is US$580 – 600, C&F per
cbm. Plywood form is US$490 – 510, C&F per cbm.
Structural plywood is US$500 – 520, C&F per cbm. 2.4
mm 3 x 6 plywood is around US$970, C&F per cbm. 3.7
mm plywood is around US$880, C&F per cbm. 5.2 mm
plywood is around US$850, C&F per cbm.
Domestic logs and lumber
Supply of domestic lumber has been declining due to
sluggish movement in Japan. The production of domestic
lumber in Kyushu region, Tohoku region and the northern
part of Kanto region is also declining.
In Kanto region, the price of cedar / cypress square,
cypress sill, 3 m cedar stud, 90 mm cedar/ cypress square,
and cypress taruki was raised since the end of November,
2024. KD 105 mm cedar post is 55,000 -58,000 yen,
delivered per cbm.
The price of cypress log keeps increasing and the price of
cedar log is also increasing. 4 m cypress log for sill is
24,000 yen in the northern part of Kanto region and
Kyushu region.
This is 2,000 yen higher than last month in the northern
part of Kanto region. It is 500 yen more than last month in
Kyushu region. It is 22,000 yen in Chugoku region, is
20,000 yen in Kansai area and is 19,000 yen in Chubu
region. It is 1,000 yen more than last month. 3 m cedar log
for post is 18,500 yen in the northern part of Kanto region
and this is 500 yen more than the previous time. Medium
sized cedar log is 14,000 yen in Pacific Ocean of Tohoku
region and this is 2,000 yen more than last time.
South Sea logs and products
Movement of South Sea and Chinese lumber are dull. The
yen had been 157 – 158 yen against the US dollar since
the second half of the last year and it was difficult to
predict the future of demand. There are less new orders
after the winter break.
Demand for decking is firm but consumers do not
purchase a lot of lumber due to the weak yen and low
demand period.
There will be the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of
January, 2025. Some lumber manufacturers in China will
take a holiday longer than last year because orders have
been not a lot since last year. Japanese distributors do not
purchase lumber due to low demand in Japan. Chinese
lumber manufacturers won’t lower the price of high
quality lumber.
Also, Indonesian lumber manufacturers will keep the price
same. South Sea logs had arrived to Japan in December,
2024 and the South Sea logs will be arrive to Japan in
January, 2025 as it was scheduled.
Strengthening exports of wood products to the US
Japan will strengthen in exporting cedar and cypress
structural lumber for 2 x 4 houses in the US.This is a
project to expand exports of domestic structural lumber by
using a subsidy from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries. Japan has already got permission for the
strength of cypress structural lumber.
Cedar structural lumber will be authorized at the first half
of this year. Japan aims to see 71.8 billion yen in exports
in 2025, 16 % more than 2023’s exports and to see 166
billion yen in exports in 2030, 16.7 % more than 2023’s
exports.
Japan Wood Products Export Association had been in
charge of testing the strength of cypress structural lumber.
Structural lumber produced in the US has to be authorized
by ALSC (American Lumber Standards Committee
Incorporated) and NGR (National Grading Rule).
In the future, Japan Wood Products Export Association
will consider exports of 4 x 8 cypress structural plywood,
domestic laminated lumber, CLT, LVL and square timber.
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