Japan
Wood Products Prices
Dollar Exchange Rates of 10th
Dec
2024
Japan Yen 151.97
Reports From Japan
Positive business
sentiment supports rate increase by
BoJ
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor has a raft of data to
review before making a decision toadjust interest rates this
month. If the Bank goes ahead with an increase this would
be the first tightening of policy three times in a calendar
year since the peak of Japan’s asset bubble in 1989.
The Bank’s ‘tankan’ corporate survey, details of which
have just been released, appears to support a rise in rates.
The governor is on record as saying the timing for an
increase is "nearing” inflation is holding steady,
businesses are planning to invest and wages are rising.
The tankan survey on business sentiment in Japan showed
an improvement among major manufacturers for the first
time in two quarters. The BoJ survey put the overall index
at plus 14, one point better than the previous poll. A
positive number indicates that more companies are
optimistic about recent business conditions than those
feeling pessimistic.
Much of the positive sentiment came from the auto sector,
which is seeing a recovery in production. Robust corporate
capital investment lifted sentiment in the production-
machinery industry.
The index for large non-manufacturers came in at plus 33,
a drop of one point from before and the first decrease in
two quarters. Sentiment declined most among
consumption-related industries including retail,
accommodation and restaurant services. Some businesses
are struggling with a worker shortage and rising labour
costs.
See: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20241213_B01/
and
See:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/12/03/economy/boj-
december-rate-hike-
likely/?utm_source=pianodnu&utm_medium=email&utm_camp
aign=72&tpcc=dnu&pnespid=_fcsnyoi57xu96ftvut1ooji_hqcvcz
knbq0fvlov0evxlnwewpmzl9yavpyvqbkt9s3vw
Business Federation launches ‘Future Design 2040’
The Japan Business Federation, (Keidanren) suggested in
a policy proposals called “Future Design 2040” a series
of actions to address the declining birth rate and
inadequate energy resources.
The Federation has urged the government to raise taxes on
the wealthy to achieve a “virtuous cycle of growth and
distribution.”
The ‘Future Design 2040’ plan outlines what is perceived
as “the country’s ideal society in 2040”, the time when
Japan’s elderly population is expected to peak.
The Cabinet Office says the economy has grown at a faster
pace than initially estimated. GDP grew at an annualised
pace of 1.2% in the three months up to September
compared to the previous quarter. The result beat a
preliminary estimate of 0.9%. Economists had forecast an
upward revision to 1%. The stronger growth data will
feature in the up-coming decision from the BoJ on interest
rates.
See: https://www.keidanren.or.jp/policy/2024/082.html
and
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/12/10/economy/keid
anren-proposal-1-quadrillion-
gdp/?utm_source=pianodnu&utm_medium=email&utm_campai
gn=72&tpcc=dnu&pnespid=6.kdwohf..hl7bmttb33tqqstqfgpjerlg
0sexo5u0uvjxg5ych.gjukhem_bogozfaxgw
Bankruptcies to hit record high
Bankruptcy filings this year are set to surpass 10,000 and
will likely exceed 2013 record according to Tokyo Shoko
Research. In November, 841 Japanese companies went
bankrupt bringing the January-November total to 9,164,
already above 2023 figures.
Decisions by US and Japan to impoact yen strength
The final weeks of 2024 will see the US Federal Reserve
and Bank of Japan make decisions on interest rates which,
in the short term, will drive exchange rate movements and
possible set the trend for 2025. US rates are expected to
drop which will drive US$/JPY movements and possibly
create some volatility in exchange rates. It is anticipated
that an increase in rates in the US would weaken the yen.
See: https://www.forex.com/en-ca/news-and-analysis/usd-jpy-
forecast-fed-and-boj-decisions-to-ignite-fx-market-volatility/
Beyond deflation
In the October “World Economic Outlook” (WEO) report,
the International Monetary Fund notes the dramatic
turnaround for Japan’s long-time deflationary economy
from the 1990s onwards, adding that accelerating prices
now represent one of the biggest headwinds for the
country’s ongoing economic outlook.
Nonetheless, the IMF indicated it did expect Japan’s
economy to stage a modest uptick in growth in 2025 due
to stronger real-wage growth which will drive private
consumption. Deloitte also specified stronger wage growth
as instrumental to the improved consumer outlook stating
in its Japan Economic Outlook “a rapid rise in wages has
finally given households the purchasing power they need
to spend more.”
The BoJ has forecasted the annual rate of increase in the
consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) at
around 2.5 percent for fiscal 2024 (April 1 2024 to March
31 2025) before declining to around 2 percent for fiscal
2025 and 2026.
Through fiscal 2025 the BoJ predicts that the impacts of
the government’s measures to stem inflation would
dissipate which should also support higher inflation.
However, declining prices in crude oil and other resources
could somewhat offset this.
See: https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/japans-economic-
outlook-a-steady-recovery-in-the-offing/
Housing support for the middle class
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is considering a
fund for housing support for the middle class as
condominium prices in central Tokyo soar. A survey by
the Real Estate Economic Research Institute showed that
the average price of newly built condominiums in Tokyo
exceeds ¥100 million.
Tokyo Govenor, Yuriko Koike, said this situation makes it
difficult for the child-rearing generation to secure homes
in Tokyo which results in couples with children to move
out of the capital.
It has been reported consideration is being given to
an
affordable housing policy to make it easier for middle-
income earners to secure a place to live in Tokyo.
The planned fund will provide necessary financial
aid for
private businesses to develop affordable housing.
The metropolitan government hopes to take the lead in
establishing a fund procurement system to support the
development of affordable housing.
See:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/12/07/japan/society/tok
yo-fund-housing-support/
October 2024 wooden office furniture imports (HS
940330)
China accounted for most of wooden office furniture
imports to Japan in October at around 89%, sharply up
from the 69% of the total value of imports of HS940330 in
September.
The other main shipper in October was Malaysia (5%).
Around 1% of all HS940330 came from each of South
Korea, Italy and Latvia. The values of shipments from
Latvia were small in the past. Arrivals of wooden office
furniture from Malaysia in October were only half that
recorded in September.
Year on year, the value of Japan’s imports of wooden
office furniture in October was up significantly (21%) and
compared to a month earlier the value of imports also
surged 20%.
October 2024 kitchen furniture imports (HS
940340)
The year on year value of Japan’s wooden kitchen
furniture imports rose 7% in October, however, compared
to a month earlier the value of October imports jumped
29%, the first time over the past 10 months there has been
such a surge. Behind the increase in import values in
October were increased imports from both the Philippines,
the top shippe, and Vietnam.
The value of shipments from the Philippines
accounted for
over 50% of the total value of HS940340 imports whild
imports from Vietnam accounted for a further 32% in
October. October arrivals from China accounted for 6% of
imports but this was down from the previous month. The
third ranked shipper in terms of the value of shipments
was Thailand.
October 2024 wooden bedroom furniture imports (HS
940350)
October marked the reversal of the steady downward trend
in the value of Japan’s imports of wooden bedroom
furniture. Compared to a month earlier the value of
October imports of HS940350 rose almost 20% and
compared to the value in October 2023 there was a 6%
increase.
The top shippers of wooden bedroom furniture to Japan in
October were China (61% share of October import
values), Vietnam (32%), Malaysia (4%) and Thailand
(2%).
October 2024 wooden furniture parts imports (HS
940391)
The value of Japan’s wooden furniture parts imports in
October increased compared to a month earlier building on
the upturn seen in September, however, the value of
import in October was slightly below the average for the
previous nine months. Year on year, the value of October
imports of wooden furniture parts into Japan was up 6%.
The rise in the value of October imports was largely due to
higher arrivals from China and Vietnam, the top shippers
of HS940391.
China accounted for 47% of October imports,
Indonesia
18%, Vietnam 12% and Malaysia 9%. The value of
arrivals from Vietnam and Malaysia in October was
around the same level as in September. Twelve shippers in
Europe accounted for just 8% of the value of October
arrivals.
Trade news from the Japan Lumber Reports (JLR)
The Japan Lumber Reports (JLR), a subscription trade
journal published every two weeks in English, is
generously allowing the ITTO Tropical Timber Market
Report to reproduce news on the Japanese market
precisely as it appears in the JLR.
For the JLR report please see:
https://jfpj.jp/japan_lumber_reports/
Supply of cedar crating
Next Corporation in Oita Prefecture started producing and
selling cedar crating. The company is famous for dried
cedar small lumber for houses and structures and is able to
supply any sizes of lumber and grades which clients
request.
Since the yen has been depreciating, the exportof
machines are firm. The company produces a lot of 85 mm
cedar squares at the mass production line, high ability of
drying timber and quality management system.
The company saws up cedar logs at Asakura Plant, which
is one its plants and used to saw up small diameter
Doulgas fir logs in Fukuoka Prefecture, and dries cedar
timber. The cedar timber will be finished manufacturing at
the head plant in Oita Prefecture and the cedar timber will
be shipped from the head plant.
The consumption of timber is 100 % cedar and the annual
consumption of cedar logs is around 80,000 cbms. In
recent years, the company installed moulder and two
dryers and the total capacity is 1,100 cbms.
Demand for houses are low this year and the production
dropped from the previous term but, now, the orders
started to recover. There are a lot of inquiries for KD 30 x
45 mm, 45 mm square and 45 x 60 mm joist and taruki.
Also, there are inquires for KD 3 m studs. Consumers
purchase the company’s products instead of imported
lumber. The electric bill, fuel cost, and transportation cost
increased and it is hard to get profits but the company will
respond consumers’ requests for crating or crosspieces as
much as possible.
In the future, the company expects to export 2 x 4 lumber
and lamina to Asia so the company considers to saw large
diameter cedar logs.
Domestic lumber and logs
Supply of domestic lumber has been decreasing since
September, 2024 due to a log shortage. Especially,
cypress lumber is in a tight supply. The price of KD 105
mm cypress post rose to around 70,000 yen, delivered per
cbm. KD 105 mm cypress sill costs around 70,000 –
75,000 yen. 90 mm cypress square is also in a tight
supply.
KD 4 m cypress lumber is around 75,000 yen and this is
5,000 yen more than the previous month. KD 105 mm
cedar post is around 53,000 yen but the price is rising to
55,000 yen due to a shortage of cedar post. KD 3 m x 105
mm cedar stud is around 57,000 – 60,000 yen.
As for domestic logs, the price of cedar and cypress logs
increase in the northern part of Kanto region and the
southern part of Tohoku region. The price of cypress log
increases in Western Japan.
In northern part of Kanto region, 3 m cedar log is 17,000
– 18,000 yen, delivered per cbm and this is 2,000 – 3,000
yen more than last month. 4 m cedar log is 17,000 –
18,000 yen, delivered per cbm and this is 1,000 yen more
than last month. 3 m cypress log is 20,000 yen, delivered
per cbm and this is 2,000 yen up from previous month. 4
m cypress log for sill is 22,000 and this is 1,000 yen up.
In Chugoku region, 3 m cypress log is 22,000 yen,
delivered per cbm. 4 m cypress log is 21,000 yen,
delivered per cbm and this is 2,000 yen up from last
month. In Kyushu region, 3 m cypress log is 22,500 yen,
and 4 m cypress log is 23,500 yen. These are 2,000 yen
higher than last month.
Cypress log for post is 15,000 yen, delivered per
cbm in
Kyushu region and it is 1,000 yen more than last month. 4 m
cedar log is 15,000 yen and this is 500 yen more than last
month. In Chugoku region, cedar log for plywood is
15,000 yen, delivered per cbm and this is 500 yen more
than last month.
Plywood
Shipment of domestic plywood in October and November,
2024 increased at plywood manufacturers, trading
companies and wholesalers. Shipment of domestic
softwood structural plywood in October, 2024 was
204,000 cbms, 10.3 % more than last month. This is the
highest shipment in this year.
The plywood price kept declining until the middle of
November, 2024 and 12 mm 3 x 6 softwood structural
plywood was around 970 yen, delivered per sheet in the
metropolitan areas. However, major plywood
manufacturers in Eastern Japan announced that they would
stop lowering the plywood price in December, 2024. The
reasons are that the shipment of plywood increased in
autumn, the inventory of plywood at plywood
manufacturers decreased, and it will take time to deliver.
The price of 12 mm painted plywood for concrete form /
normal plywood in South Asia is leveled off. However,
suppliers in Malaysia and Indonesia expect to raise the
price strongly because their local currencies are stronger
than the US dollar. The exchange rate of yen was 140 yen
against the US dollar during August to September, 2024
and the yen appreciated to 150 yen in October and
November, 2024. Therefore, the futures price is higher
than the spot price in Japan. As a result, Japanese
consumers hesitate to purchase imported plywood and
South Asian suppliers did not raise the price this time.
12 mm 3 x 6 painted plywood for concrete formboard in
South Asia is $580 – 600, C&F per cbm. Form plywood is
US$490 – 510, C&F per cbm. Structural plywood is
US$500 – 520, C&F per cbm. 2.4 mm 3 x 6 plywood is
around US$970.
7 mm 3 x 6 plywood is around US$880, C&F per cbm. 5.2
mm 3 x 6 plywood is around US$850, C&F per cbm.
In Japan, 12 mm 3 x 6 painted plywood for concrete form
is around 1,850 yen, delivered per sheet. Form plywood is
1,550 yen, delivered per sheet. Structural plywood is 1,550
yen, delivered per sheet. 2.5 mm plywood is 750 yen,
delivered per cbm. 4 mm plywood is 930 yen, delivered
per cbm. 5.5 mm plywood is 1,100 yen, delivered per cbm.
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