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Report from
North America
September home sales slowest since 2010
Sales of previously occupied US homes slowed in
September to the weakest annual pace in nearly 14 years
even as mortgage rates eased and the supply of properties
on the market continued to climb.
Existing home sales fell 1% last month, from August, to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, the
National Association of Realtors reported. That's the
slowest annual sales pace since October 2010 when the
housing market was still in a deep slump following the
late-2000s real estate crash.
Sales fell 3.5% compared with September last year. The
latest home sales were short of the 3.9 million pace
economists were expecting, according to FactSet. The US
housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to
2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from
pandemic-era lows.
“Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-
million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors
usually associated with higher home sales are developing,”
said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Existing-home sales in the Northeast in September fell
4.2% from August to an annual rate of 460,000, down
6.1% from September 2023. In the Midwest, existing-
home sales slipped 2.2% in September to an annual rate of
900,000, down 5.3% from the prior year. Existing-home
sales in the South decreased 1.7% from August to an
annual rate of 1.72 million in September, down 5.5% from
one year before. In the West, existing-home sales rose
4.1% in September to an annual rate of 760,000, up 5.6%
from a year ago.
See: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-
statistics/existing-home-sales
Housing starts pull back but multi-family starts
continue to plunge
After reporting a sharp increase in new residential
construction in the US in the previous month the
Commerce Department’s latest housing report showed a
modest deline in housing starts in September.
The Commerce Department said housing starts fell by
0.5% to an annual rate of 1.354 million in September after
spiking by 7.8% to a revised rate of 1.361 million in
August.
The modest pullback by housing starts came as another
steep drop by multi-family starts more than offset a jump
by single-family starts. Multi-family starts plunged by
9.4% to a rate of 327,000 in September after plummeting
by 10% to a rate of 361,000 in August.
Meanwhile, single-family starts shot up by 2.7% to a rate
of 1.027 million in September after declining by 16.1 % to
a rate of 1.000 million in August.
The report also showed a sharp pullback by building
permits, which tumbled by 2.9% to an annual rate of 1.428
million in September after surging by 4.6% to a revised
rate of 1.470 million in August.
Experts say the lack of new multifamily development is
partly due to the large amount of multi-family construction
already in the pipeline as well as the current difficulty in
financing large new apartment complexes.
Canadian housing starts rose 5% in September compared
with the previous month as groundbreaking increased on
multi-unit and single-family-detached urban homes,
according to data from the national housing agency. The
seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts rose
to 223,808 units from a revised 213,012 units in August,
the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation said.
Economists had expected starts to rise to 237,500 units.
See: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html
and
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/u-s-
housing-starts-pull-back-modestly-as-multi-family-starts-extend-
plunge-1033859117
Jobs report blows past expectations
US hiring surged in September, blowing past economist
expectations and rebuking concern about weakness in the
labor market. The fresh report marks one of the last major
pieces of economic data before the presidential election.
Employers hired 254,000 workers last month, far
exceeding economist expectations of 150,000 jobs added,
US Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed. The
unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Weaker-than-expected jobs data in both July and August
has stoked worry among some economists about the
nation's economic outlook.
Employment showed little change over the month for
manufacturing and other major industries while
construction employment continued to trend up in
September (+25,000), similar to the average
monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000).
Despite an overall slowdown this year, the job market has
proven resilient. Hiring has continued at a solid pace;
meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed but
remains near a 50-year low.
The new data arrived two weeks after the Federal Reserve
cut its benchmark interest rate by half of a percentage
point. The landmark decision dialed back a years-long
fight against inflation and offered relief for borrowers
saddled with high costs. Inflation has slowed dramatically
from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains
slightly higher than the Fed's target of 2%.
See: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Consumer sentiment slipped in October on frustration
over high prices
Americans’ outlook on the economy soured a bit this
month after two months of small gains, according to the
University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. The
index slipped to 68.9 in October from 70.1 in September,
which had been its highest reading since May.
"Consumers continue to express frustration over high
prices,” said Joanne Hsu, Director of Consumer Surveys at
University of Michigan.
Many consumers appear to be reserving judgement about
the economy while they wait for the presidential campaign
to finish, Hsu added.
Economists noted that the decline occurred after the
Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate in
September, while gas prices have steadily fallen and
overall inflation has cooled, trends that should boost
sentiment. Yet Hurricane Helene and Middle East turmoil
could have pushed sentiment lower, Bradley Saunders, an
economist at Capital Economics, noted. And after falling
in anticipation of the Fed's rate cut, mortgage rates have
climbed in the past two weeks.
Still, consumers have kept spending despite their gloomy
responses to economic confidence surveys, buoying the
economy. Growth likely reached 3.2% in the July-
September quarter, a healthy pace, according to the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
See: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Further slump in US manufacturing
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted
in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd
time in the last 23 months, say the nation's supply
executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On
Business. ISM’s Manufacturing PMI registered 47.2
percent in September, matching the figure recorded in
August. A figure below 50 denotes contraction.
“Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an
unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to
federal monetary policy which the US Federal Reserve
addressed by the time of this report and election
uncertainty,” wrote ISM Chair Timothy Fiore.
Of the 18 industries surveyed by ISM, five reported
growth in September including the Furniture and Related
Products sector. The Wood Products sector was among the
13 industries reporting contraction in September.
One Furniture & Related Products executive was
dismissive about the sector’s September growth, reporting,
“Business is flat. Waiting for interest rates to drop and the
election outcome in November before we confirm our
2025 plans. Currently planning on a flat 2025.”
See: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-
reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/october/
Cabinet sales dip year on year
Manufacturers reported a drop in overall cabinet sales for
August, down 1.2% compared to the year prior, with stock
cabinet sales accounting for the decline. In a month-over-
month comparison however, August's overall cabinet sales
rose 3.3% compared to July figures, with all three
segments showing gains, according to the Kitchen Cabinet
Manufacturers Association's August Trend of Business
report.
Survey respondents reported overall sales of US$237.5
million for August. In the year-over-year comparison,
custom sales were up 1.2% to US$64.1 million, semi-
custom rose 0.1% to $133.3 million however stock sales
dropped 9.9%, to US$40.2 million. Cabinet quantity for
the month by those reporting was 596,557 units, a
decrease of 12.7% compared to August 2023 figures.
For the month-over-month sales comparison, survey
respondents reported increases in all three segments.
Custom sales rose 5.0%, semi-custom sales increased
1.4% and stock sales were up 7.0%. There was a 3.5% rise
in cabinet quantity compared to July figures.
However, all three segments dropped in the year-to-date,
year-over-year comparison. Custom sales dropped 5.7%,
semi-custom declined 1.5% and stock dipped 0.2%;
overall sales by responding companies for the year to date
was US$1.89 billion, a 2.4% decrease compared to the
same period last year. Cabinet quantity for the year to date
was 5.131 million units, a decrease of 4.2% over the same
time period last year.
Estimated overall market sales for August were $1.02
billion and estimated sales for the year to date for the
overall market were $8.96 billion.
See: https://kcma.org/insights/august-trend-business-report-
and
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/cabinets/august-cabinet-
sales-dip-yoy-july-kcma-report
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