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Report from
Europe
EU tropical wood imports at record low in first quarter
EU27 imports of tropical wood and wood furniture at
335,000 tonnes in the first quarter of this year were 4%
down compared to the previous quarter and 22% less than
in the same quarter last year. This was the lowest
quarterly import quantity recorded this century by the EU
and quite possibly ever recorded by the EU since it was
first formed (as the EEC) in 1957 (Chart 1a).
EU27 import value of tropical wood and wooden furniture
in the first quarter this year was US$718 million, 6% more
than the previous quarter but 20% down on the same
quarter last year.
Quarterly import value has fallen precipitously from a
historic high of US$1274 million in the second quarter of
2022 at the peak of the post-COVID boom (Chart 1b).
EU economy forecast to grow 1.0% in 2024 and 1.6% in
2025
While tropical wood import levels in the EU were
extremely low in the first quarter this year, the most recent
economic data is more encouraging. Following broad
economic stagnation in the EU in 2023, better-than-
expected growth at the start of 2024 and the ongoing
reduction in inflation set the scene for a gradual expansion
of economic activity for the rest of the year. This is
according to the European Commission's Spring Forecast
published on 15th May.
The European Commission forecasts GDP growth of 1.0%
in the EU in 2024 rising to 1.6% in 2025. EU consumer
price inflation is expected to fall from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024
and
2.2% in 2025.
According to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate, GDP
edged up by 0.3% in the EU in the first quarter of 2024.
This expansion, which was broad-based across Member
States, should mark the end of the prolonged period of
economic stagnation that started in the final quarter of
2022.
Growth of economic activity this year and next is expected
to be largely driven by a steady expansion of private
consumption, as continued real wage and employment
growth sustain an increase in real disposable incomes. A
strong propensity to save is, however, still partially
holding back private consumption.
In contrast, investment growth appears to be softening.
Dragged down by the negative cycle of residential
construction, it is expected to pick up only gradually.
As credit conditions are set to improve, financial markets
now expect a slightly more gradual path of interest rate
cuts than forecast at the end of 2023.
Amid a more resilient global economy, a rebound in trade
is set to support EU exports. However, as domestic
demand resumes in the EU, an acceleration in imports will
largely offset the positive contribution of exports to
growth.
While the EU economy is expected to pick up gradually
this year, uncertainty and downside risks to the outlook
have further increased in recent months, mainly stemming
from the evolution of Russia's protracted war against
Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. Broader
geopolitical tensions also continue to pose risks.
Moreover, the persistence of inflation in the US may lead
to further delays in rate cuts in the US and beyond,
resulting in somewhat tighter global financial conditions.
On the domestic front, the decline of inflation may be
slower than projected, possibly leading EU central banks
to delay rate cuts. Furthermore, some Member States may
adopt additional fiscal consolidation measures in their
2025 budgets, not currently factored into the EC forecast,
which could impact economic growth next year.
EU27 tropical wood furniture imports continue to slide
in Q1 2024
The EU27 imported 71,200 tonnes of wood furniture from
tropical countries with a total value of US$302 million in
the first quarter of 2024, down 6% and 14% respectively
compared to the same period in 2023.
In the first quarter this year compared to the same period
in 2023, EU27 import value of wood furniture decreased
from nearly all leading tropical supply countries, including
Vietnam (-5% to US$154.0 million), Indonesia (-33% to
US$70.3 million), India (-5% to US$51.5 million), and
Thailand (-47% to US$3.0 million).
Import value from Malaysia increased by 1% to US$18.6
million in the same period. EU27 wood furniture imports
from all other tropical countries were negligible during the
period (Chart 2).
Extremely slow start to year for EU27 imports of
tropical sawnwood
The EU27 imported 168,400 cubic metres of tropical
sawnwood in the first quarter this year, 28% less than the
same period in 2023. Import value of this commodity was
US$151 million in the first quarter this year, 31% less than
the same period in 2023.
Imports declined from all leading supply countries during
the period including Cameroon (-23% to 64,500 cubic
metres), Gabon (-39% to 27,500 cubic metres), Republic
of Congo (-29% to 19,600 cubic metres), Brazil (-26% to
19,200 cubic metres), Malaysia (-22% to 11,700 cubic
metres), Ecuador (-19% to 3,900 cubic metres), Ghana (-
37% to 3,700 cubic metres), Côte d’Ivoire (-17% to 2,500
cubic metres), and the Central African Republic (-36% to
2,000 cubic metres) (Chart 3).
The EU27 imported 27,800 tonnes of tropical
mouldings/decking in the first quarter this year, 11% less
than in the same period in 2023. Import value of this
commodity was down 21% to US$49 million in the same
period.
During the first quarter imports increased year-on-year
from Peru (+11% to 2,800 tonnes) but fell from all other
leading supply countries including Brazil (-1% to 9,700
tonnes), Indonesia (-4% to 8,700 tonnes), Gabon (-44% to
2,400 tonnes), Malaysia (-27% to 1,200 tonnes), and
Bolivia (-22% to 800 tonnes) (Chart 4).
The EU27 imported 12,400 cubic metres of tropical logs
with a total value of US$7.2 million in the first quarter this
year, respectively 59% and 62% less than in the same
period last year. The decline was driven mainly by an 89%
decline in imports from the Republic of Congo to 2,000
cubic metres. This follows the ban on exports of most logs
from the country since 1st January 2023.
EU27 imports of logs in the first quarter of this year were
also down compared to the same period last year from the
Central African Republic (-41% to 2,300 cubic metres),
Cameroon (-45% to 1,600 cubic metres), and Liberia (-
72% to 300 cubic metres).
However, EU27 log imports increased from the
Democratic Republic of Congo (+52% to 2,500 cubic
metres), Paraguay (+341% to 2,200 cubic metres), and
Ecuador (+123% to 400 cubic metres) during the three-
month period (Chart 5).
EU27 imports of tropical hardwood veneer down 11%
in first quarter
The EU27 imported 59,000 cubic metres of tropical veneer
with a total value of US$41 million in the first quarter this
year, down 11% and 13% respectively compared to the
same period last year. Imports of tropical veneer from
Gabon, by far the largest supplier to the EU27, were
35,800 cubic metres in the first quarter this year, 19%
more than the same period in 2023.
EU27 imports of this commodity also increased during the
period from the Republic of Congo (+4% to 3,200 cubic
metres), the UK (+69% to 1,900 cubic metres), and Ghana
(+26% to 1,600 cubic metres). However, these gains were
insufficient to offset falling imports from Côte d'Ivoire (-
46% to 9,100 cubic metres), Cameroon (-34% to 5,200
cubic metres), Indonesia (-31% to 900 cubic metres), and
Equatorial Guinea (-80% to 500 cubic metres) (Chart 6).
The EU27 imported 56,900 cubic metres of tropical
plywood with a total value of US$43 million in the first
quarter this year, respectively 8% and 11% less than the
same period last year. Imports fell from all the leading
supply countries during the period including Gabon (-10%
to 15,000 cubic metres), Indonesia (-22% to 14,000 cubic
metres), and China (-6% to 7,600 cubic metres).
Imports from Brazil were also down, by 8% to 3,300 cubic
metres. However, these losses were partly offset by rising
imports from Vietnam (+68% to 5,000 cubic metres),
Morocco (+42% to 4,400 cubic metres), the UK (+16% to
2,400 cubic metres), Malaysia (+25% to 1,100 cubic
metres), and Paraguay (+81% to 1,000 cubic metres)
(Chart 7).
The EU27 imported 4,500 tonnes of tropical wood
flooring with a total value of US$12 million in the first
quarter this year, down 18% and 26% respectively
compared to the previous year.
Imports of 2,400 tonnes from Malaysia in the first quarter
this year were 18% less than the same period last year.
Imports also fell from Indonesia (-39% to 800 tonnes).
However, flooring imports increased from Vietnam (+24%
to 900 tonnes), and Bolivia (from a negligible level to 200
tonnes) (Chart 8).
The value of EU27 imports of other joinery products from
tropical countries - which mainly comprise laminated
window scantlings, kitchen tops and wood doors – was
US$39 million in the first quarter this year, down 22%
compared to the same period in 2023.
Import quantity fell 15% to 16,700 tonnes during the same
period. Imports were down 22% to US$14.7 million from
Indonesia, down 41% to US$11.0 million from Malaysia,
and down 1% to US$3.3 million from Vietnam.
In a potentially significant longer-term development, given
efforts in the country to shift up the value chain as log
exports are banned, EU imports of laminated joinery
products from the Republic of Congo were valued at
US$3.8 million in the first quarter this year, up 180%
compared to the same period last year. Imports from
Ghana also increased, by 147% to US$0.8 million in the
same period (Chart 9).
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