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Japan Wood Products Prices

01-15th May 2013


Japan Wood Products Prices

Dollar Exchange Rates of  10th May 2013

Japan Yen 101.60

Reports From Japan

 

 Consumer confidence unexpectedly slides
The Cabinet Office released the latest Confidence Index for Japanese consumers. Unexpectedly the latest results show that consumer confidence has slipped since the March survey.


The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index fell to 44.5 in April from 44.8 in March. The index of willingness to buy durable goods also declined.


Analysts had expected the index to continue to improve and were forecasting an index level of over 45 for April.


Cabinet Office claims improvement in economy
The Japan Monthly Economic Report from the Cabinet Office provides a summary of the economic outlook. See: Executive Summary (Apr 2013)
http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai3/getsurei-e/2013apr.html.


The report says the Japanese economy is showing signs of picking up but weakness remains in some areas. The positive signs are that:

  exports are levelling off

  industrial production is showing signs of improvement

  corporate profits show signs of improvement, mainly among large firms

  business investment is levelling off

  business sentiment shows signs of improvement

  the employment situation shows signs of improvement but some severe aspects still remain

  private consumption is picking up


Recent price developments indicate that the Japanese economy is still in a mild deflationary phase.


In the short-term prospects for recovery are expected to improve gradually, supported by an improvement in corporate and public confidence driven by a stronger export performance and the impact of the government stimulus package and new monetary policy. However, weak overseas demand remains a downside risk for the Japanese economy.


Private consumption picking up
Private consumption is picking up according to the monthly report. One of the factors behind this is that while real incomes remain broadly flat, consumer confidence is improving.

In the short-term private consumption is expected to continue to strengthen however, employment levels and income growth, or lack thereof, must be carefully monitored.


Signs of improvement in business investment
Business investment, which has been severely dampened by the current state of the domestic and global economy, is starting to level off.


The quarterly financial statements of corporations suggest that business investment increased for the first time in four quarters. In the October - December quarter of 2012, investment by manufacturers fell but increased for non-manufacturers.


G7 accepts yen exchange rate not being manipulated
On foreign exchange markets the yen fell to a four year low against the US dollar on May 9. An exchange rate of 101 yen to the dollar marked a turning point for the yen as the government’s stimulus measures and the Bank of Japan’s efforts to expand liquidity start to have a greater impact.


The trigger for the yen to break the 100 yen to the dollar mark seems to have been in response to the improved US jobless claims reported on May 3 showing that first-time unemployment numbers fell to the lowest level since January 2008.


This news, coming on top of suggestions that the Federal Reserve may begin unwinding its quantitative easing schedule as early as June this year, altered the outlook in the yen:dollar currency markets. Many analysts believe a new round of yen weakness will now set in.

At the recent G7 meeting of representatives from members - the U.S., Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.K steered clear of discussions of ‘currency wars’ instead focused on how each member should put in place policies balancing austerity measures with growth-enhancing measures.


Prior to the meeting there was concern in Japan that the government’s aggressive monetary easing, which has resulted in a sharp weakening of the yen, would attract criticism. However the sentiment expressed after the G7 meeting seemed to provide support for the policies adopted by the Japanese government and this could pave the way for a further weakening of the yen.


Trade news from the Japan Lumber Reports (JLR)
The Japan Lumber Reports (JLR), a subscription trade journal published every two weeks in English, is generously allowing the ITTO Tropical Timber Market Report to extract and reproduce news on the Japanese market.


The JLR requires that ITTO reproduces newsworthy text exactly as it appears in their publication.


For the JLR report please see:
http://www.n-mokuzai.com/modules/general/index.php?id=7


March new housing starts
March starts were 71,456 units, 7.3% more than March last year, seven consecutive months increase. Owners units and rental units recorded double digit increase.
Seasonally adjusted annual starts were 904,000 units, 4.2% less than February because of decline of condominium starts.


This seems to be temporary drop and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport commented housing market continues gradual recovery. In March starts, owners’ units showed 11.4% more and rental units 10.7% more. Owners’ units increased in populated regions like Tokyo and Nagoya then starts in three quake stricken prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima were considerably high.

Meantime, in units built for sale, condominium starts were down because of high starts in February but detached units increased for seven consecutive months and maintained more than 10,000 units level since last June.


Wood based units were 39,637, 11.3% more with the share of 55.5%, 3.7 points up from February.

Movement of plywood is getting stable after excitement is fading. Inquiries in domestic softwood plywood are slowing by dealers. In the first quarter, wholesalers and retailers built up inventories in speculation but actual demand did not appear as expected so the inventory depletion is not progressing.


March was busy month as order balances of January and February were delivered all at one time then the shipment was high with 218,900 cbms so compared to March, April was quiet month. However, the shipment by the manufacturers continues high for precutting plants and house builders.


Considering low level inventory of 125,000 cbms, some are building inventory as the supply shortage may occur again once the demand takes off. Thus, the manufacturers are bullish and plan to increase the sales prices in May again.


In Tokyo regional market, the prices of JAS 12 mm 3x6 are 890-900 yen per sheet delivered, 20-30 yen up from April. 1,790 yen on 24 mm thick panel, 50 yen up. 1,350 yen on 9 mm 3x10 long panel, 50 yen up.

On imported plywood, supplying mills suffer log shortage and high log cost in Malaysia and Indonesia so that export prices continue climbing but the market in Japan is slow to follow by lack of demand. Dealers’ inventories are still high so that they are not able to buy future cargoes.


The supply side plans to increase the export prices again in May but the prices in Japan are slow to go up. Suppliers’ price increase is too much too fast so that the Japanese buyers are beginning to lose interest and the future purchase volume has been declining since last February.

In Tokyo market, the prices of 3x6 JAS concrete forming panel are 1,100 yen per sheet delivered, 20 yen up from April. 12 mm structural panel are 1,150 yen, 50 yen up. JAS 3x6 coated concrete forming panel are1,200 yen, 20 yen up.


TPP participation and reaction by Japanese forest industry
Japan has been expressing intention to participate TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and there are pro and con in Japan regarding the participation.


The National Federation of Forest Owners Cooperative Association recently met the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and expressed the comment of the
Association. The Association held the general meeting in late March and made up the resolution regarding participation of TPP.


The Association handed the resolution to the Minister. The resolution says that it is necessary to take maximum consideration of maintaining import duty on plywood and
lumber, which is indispensable for maintaining forest industry and for taking measures preventing global warming.


It fears participation may trigger further deterioration of forest and forest industry by free trade. Also the Committee on Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries passed the resolution in April 19, which says that important items of agriculture such as rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy products and sugar cane are excluded from the negotiation or should be renegotiated later.


Abolition of the import duty is not conceded including gradual abolition over ten years. It also includes the same resolution as the Forest Owners Association’s resolution of maintaining the duty on plywood and certain kind of lumber.


On April 29, Canada agreed to let Japan in for TPP so all of eleven countries now support participation of Japan. After approval by U.S. congress, Japan will join the TPP Japan has been expressing intention to participate TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and there are pro and con in Japan regarding the participation.


The National Federation of Forest Owners Cooperative Association recently met the Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and expressed the comment of the
Association.


The Association held the general meeting in late March and made up the resolution regarding participation of TPP.


The Association handed the resolution to the Minister. The resolution says that it is necessary to take maximum consideration of maintaining import duty on plywood and
lumber, which is indispensable for maintaining forest industry and for taking measures preventing global warming. It fears participation may trigger further deterioration of forest and forest industry by free trade.


Also the Committee on Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries passed the resolution in April 19, which says that important items of agriculture such as rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy products and sugar cane are excluded from the negotiation or should be renegotiated later.


Abolition of the import duty is not conceded including gradual abolition over ten years. It also includes the same resolution as the Forest Owners Association’s resolution of maintaining the duty on plywood and certain kind of lumber.


On April 29, Canada agreed to let Japan in for TPP so all of eleven countries now support participation of Japan. After approval by U.S. congress, Japan will join the TPP meeting in late July.


Abbreviations

LM        Loyale Merchant, a grade of log parcel  Cu.m         Cubic Metre
QS         Qualite Superieure    Koku         0.278 Cu.m or 120BF
CI          Choix Industriel                                                       FFR            French Franc
CE         Choix Economique                                                        SQ              Sawmill Quality
CS         Choix Supplimentaire      SSQ            Select Sawmill Quality
FOB      Free-on-Board     FAS            Sawnwood Grade First and
KD        Kiln Dry                               Second 
AD        Air Dry        WBP           Water and Boil Proof
Boule    A Log Sawn Through and Through MR              Moisture Resistant
              the boards from one log are bundled                      pc         per piece      
              together                      ea                each      
BB/CC  Plywood grades. Letter(s) on the left indicate face veneer(s), those on the right backing veneer(s). Veneer grade decreases in order B, BB, C, CC, etc. MBF           1000 Board Feet          
              Plywood   MDF           Medium Density Fibreboard
BF         Board Foot F.CFA         CFA Franc        
Sq.Ft     Square Foot  PHND             Pin hole no defect grade
Hoppus ton     1.8 cubic metres              Price has moved up or down

Source: ITTO'  Tropical Timber Market Report


CopyRight (C) Global Wood Trade Network. All rights reserved.

 

hief minister of Tamil Nadu Ms.Jayalalithaa, has announced the establishment of a Rs.12 billion project for the annual manufacture of 200,000 tonnes of multi-layer double coated packaging board.


This new plant will be built in Tiruchi by Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Ltd and is expected to provide additional employment for 2,000 people. At present around 40% of the demand for coated paper is met through imports.


The new plant will produce high end white liner boards for folding boxes, the fastest growing segment in the paper industry.


The company is producing 400,000 tonnes of printing and writing papers and has recently started a 600 tonnes per day cement plant using paper mill waste and fly ash as raw material.


Scouting raw materials in Myanmar and Vietnam
To meet the rising demand for quality paper across India JK Paper is looking to develop new facilities in Myanmar and Vietnam to source pulp so as to increase output.


The company recognizes that in the short to medium term at least sourcing domestic wood raw materials will remain a challenge. Because of this the company says it is imperative to find new sources of quality raw materials. The focus on Myanmar and Vietnam is due to their proximity and also their policies for attracting inward investment.


The demand in India for paper continues to be strong. It is estimated at around 11.5 million tonnes is currently required to meet domestic demand and this could grow to 20 million tonnes by 2020.


The company has added close to 290,000 tonnes of production capacity over the last few years and its total production capacity stands at 455,000 tonnes at the moment.


 

Sales of teak and other hardwoods at Western forest Depots
During the last two to three auctions in south Gujarat depots the quality as well as quantity of logs offered for sale were very good such that prices improved on the back of strong buyer interest.


During the most recent auction a correction in prices was observed as buyers limited purchases to their immediate requirements only.


Ex-sawmill prices for imported hardwoods
Prices for air dried sawnwood per cubic foot, ex-sawmill are shown below.

Imported KD 12% sawn wood
Prices are currently firm due to weak rupee.

Plywood market prices
Prices remain unchanged as follows:

7. BRAZIL

  Forest inventory to be updated by 2016
The first national forest inventory in Brazil was conducted in the 1980s and the focus was on assessing timber stocks. A new inventory is planned and will be broader in scope encompassing sustainability.


Work on testing the methodology for the new inventory started in Santa Catarina and Brasilia in 2011 and full scale field work will begin this year and will be completed by 2016.


The new inventory will provide authorities with more information enabling them to plan and implement appropriate policies in areas such as forest concession allocation and management and carbon stock assessments.


The inventory is expected to provide a greater knowledge of the potential of the forests which represent about 62% of the 8.5 million square kilometers of the country.


The new forest inventory will not only provide information for developing conservation and environmental strategies but will also provide the means for developing sound economic strategies for the sustainable management from natural forest to ensure only legally sourced wood products enter the domestic market.


The new forest inventory will be based on some 20,000 data points across the country, 7,000 of which will be in the Amazon rainforest. The intention is to update this new inventory every five years.


The cost of the new inventory is estimated at R$150 million, of which some R$65 million will be provided from the Amazon Fund administered by the Brazilian Development Bank.


São Paulo the largest domestic market for certified timber
The Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Management and Certification has released a report on the consumption of certified Amazon timber entitled "Unraveling the Brazilian market for FSC certified tropical timber".


The report addresses three main issues:

  the relationship between producers and buyers of FSC certified wood

  market opportunities for FSC certified wood

  demand for products with the FSC community label


The report is based on interviews with companies and communities managing forests as well as wood product manufacturers utilising timber from the Amazon.


Brazil has a massive area of certified forest and is ranked the world’s sixth largest in terms of certified forest.


The report mentions that the area of certified forest in Brazil amounts to some 6.3 million hectares a figure which includes natural forests and forest plantations.


The report further states that the share of certified natural forests is approximately 20% of the total area of certified forest.


The report notes that around 70% of the available FSC certified timber is exported but that a large volume of tropical timber sold in the domestic market does not meet the social and environmental requirements of FSC certification. São Paulo state is the largest national consumer of certified timber (14%), followed by the Northeast region (9%).


The study highlights the potential for an increase in production of certified tropical timber and estimates that output could grow by aabout 70% over the next three years.


Developments in wood product exports
Between 2002 and 2012 wood product exports increased from US$3.8 billion to US$8.5 billion however, exports of solid wood products, as a proportion of the total, fell from 46% to 22% in the same period.


Between 2005 and 2012 plywood exports declined 87%, tropical sawnwood exports declined 67% while exports of pine sawnwood fell 49%.


Other solid wood products exports also fell in the period 2005 to 2012 for example, pine plywood exports were down by a third; there was also a 38% reduction in exports of value-added products mainly furniture.


Data indicate that tropical timber exports were affected greater than products from plantations.


Analysts suggest that the cause of the decline in tropical timber product export was related to the increased costs involved in meeting more demanding standards for forestry operations, the lack of a clear development policy for the tropical wood products sector and environmental issues in importing markets. These factors also resulted in a decline in investment in tropical wood product manufacturing.


Another factor which contributed to the weaker exports was the strengthening of the Brazilian currency such that Brazilian exporters lost competitiveness in international markets.


Pará state to have new organization to monitor forest and milling operations
To meet the requirement of the EU timber regulation European importers are requesting documentation to prove the origin of wood products and demonstrate legality throughout the supply chains.


This is a challenge for Brazilian exporters who say meeting the requirements of imports in Europe is complex and requires Brazilian companies and government institutions to work together to ensure trade is uninterrupted.


In the state of Pará, the biggest exporter of tropical timber in Brazil, measures to improve monitoring and reporting of forest and processing operations are being considered. Media reports suggest it is possible a new organization will be established to provide monitoring services to industry.


It is estimated that the current forest concessions which were allocated after 2010 can supply between 14 and 20 million cubic metres of which 85% will be consumed in the domestic market and the remainder exported.


Analysts report that the pulp and paper sector has been able to adjust quickly to the requirements of the EUTR as most operators were producing certified products and had management processes in place which could be adapted to meet the requirements of importers in Europe.


 

8. PERU

  Industrial park planned for Pucallpa
In August this year work will begin on the construction of an industrial park in Pucallpa. The park will be adjacent to the Federico Basadre road, which runs from Pucallpa to Lima.


When complete the industrial park will extend over 288 hectares. The first phase of the development will involve 44 hectares and will cost around US$12 million. Finance will be provided by the Development Finance Corporation (COFIDE).


The relocation of wood processing plants to the park is expected to facilitate greater control over the flow of logs. All logs coming from Loreto and Ucayali will enter the park making the monitoring and control of log movements more efficient.


The concentration of processing plants in the park will also provide an opportunity for efficient wood residue utilisation and disposal.


Native communities contribute to National Forest and Wildlife Policy
The Association for the Development of the Peruvian Rainforest (AIDESEP), an organization that brings together native communities from around the country, has contributed to the draft National Forestry and Wildlife Policy (PNFFS).


During a recent workshop to discuss the Forestry and Wildlife Policy draft Alberto Pizango Chota, president of the AIDESEP, highlighted the importance of open and honest communication between indigenous peoples and the state. The workshop concluded with approval of the contributions from AIDESEP.

9. GUYANA

  India a major market for Guyana logs
For almost a month there has been no export of greenheart logs however, purpleheart logs were exported in both Standard and Fair sawmill qualities.


Purpleheart standard quality log FOB prices remain largely unchanged at US$385 per cubic metre while FOB prices for Fair sawmill quality logs were at US$300 per cubic metre.


Mora logs were exported in the period under review and prices firmed slightly. Both Standard and Small sawmill quality logs were exported at an average of US$135 per cubic metre. The main market for logs for the period of review was India.


Firm demand spurs improved prices
The export market for sawnwood was active and favourable prices were secured.


Undressed greenheart sawnwood was traded at prices ranging from US$636 to US$975 per cubic metre FOB.


Undressed purpleheart (select) sawnwood say top end prices move from US$950 to US$1,100 per cubic metre FOB. On the other hand Undressed purpleheart (merchantable) sawnwood prices remained stable at US$650 per cubic metre FOB.


Undressed mora (select) sawnwood export FOB prices also recorded gains, moving from US$575 to US$595 per cubic metre.


Undressed mora (merchantable) also attracted favourable prices earning as much as US$615 per cubic metre FOB.


Dressed greenheart sawnwood export prices improved from US$1,102 just two weeks ago to US$1,166 per cubic metre FOB, but Dressed purpleheart sawnwood prices remained unchanged at US$1,102 per cubic metre FOB.


Plywood export FOB prices were largely unchanged at US$584 per cubic metre.


Roundwood (Piles and Posts) attracted favourable prices on the export market. Greenheart Piles earned as much US$634 per cubic metre with main market being North America. Posts also secured favourable prices on the export market with US$530 per cubic metre.


Primary and value added industries to benefit from development initiatives
The forest industry recorded a stable performance in 2012 in comparison to 2011. The Guyana Forestry Commission is working with operators to encourage optimal utilisation of the forest and to widen the range of species harvested.


A number of initiatives are being undertaken by Government of Guyana and the Guyana Forestry Commission to improve the performance of the sector at the primary and value added levels. In addition a number of other initiatives in the area of sustainable forestry management, REDD+ and climate change will continue during 2013.

  Source:ITTO'  Tropical Timber Market Report


CopyRight(C) Global Wood Trade Network. All rights reserved.