By Madison's Lumber Reporter
It is possible the top of softwood lumber prices
has been reached, as the two-week standoff
between sellers and customers ended with prices
slightly down. Sales volumes continued quite
small as most customers waited yet longer, in
expectation that prices might come down. The
latest lumber production and sawmill capacity
utilization rates data out of the Western Wood
Products Association, for March 2021, shows
improvements in both Canada and the U.S. As
supply chain issues are resolved and more wood
is moving through the pipeline, customers wonder
if there are more lower prices ahead. For their
part, producers work away on order files which
remain into the end of June, further providing
them with no reason to lower prices.
Housing activity across North America continues
powerfully strong, so the question now is: will
increased lumber production at sawmills satisfy
demand for ongoing construction projects? With a
lot of the summer building season still ahead,
and U.S. and Canadian home buying and house
price growth unabated, no one knows yet if a
supply-demand balance has been reached.
“Another relatively quiet, holiday-shortened, week was
punctuated by price corrections in most commodities.” — Madison’s Lumber
Reporter
It was another quiet week according to traders of Western S-P-F
commodities in the U.S. As players returned from their observance of
Memorial Day, most elected to play it cautiously as the tone of demand
remained subdued and everyone from sawmills to retailers took a break to
assess their positions. For their part, producers were confident that
strong demand and subpar supply would persist in the market, and only
corrected their asking prices modestly.
Western S-P-F producers in Canada said demand perked back up again the
week of June 3, as price corrections down between $38 and $40 on bread
and butter #2&Btr dimension generated robust inquiry from buyers. The
only commonly-traded item to remain flat from the previous week was
#3/Utility 2×4 R/L, while the remainder of low grade sizes fell between
$20 and $100. Sales activity was brisk compared to the previous week,
even with U.S. customers slowly trickling back from their holiday
weekend. Order files at sawmills were roughly three weeks out.
After a couple of weeks’ standoff between suppliers and customers,
for the week ending June 3, 2021 the wholesaler price of benchmark
softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr dropped
slightly, to US$1,600, from $1,640 mfbm the previous week.
That week’s price is down by -$18, or -1%, from one month ago when
it was $1,618.
“Roles reversed somewhat in Southern Yellow Pine as
sawmills corrected their asking prices further down in search of
buyers. Producers showed greater accumulations of narrow stock while
wider offerings remained in shorter supply, thanks to the wet spring
weather in the U.S. South which restricted access to larger logs.” —
Madison’s Lumber Reporter
Compared to the price one-year-ago, when it was US$378 mfbm, for the
week ending June 3, 2021, the price of Western S-P-F KD 2×4 was up by
+$1,222, or +323%.
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