By Madison's Lumber Reporter
As the softwood lumber dispute V file winds its
way through the usual U.S. domestic as well as
international trade court tribunals, a
preliminary ruling Monday from the U.S. commerce
department brings a sharp reduction in the duty
rates paid on Canadian softwood lumber entering
the U.S. All companies named, as well as the
group “all others” category – except Resolute
Forest Products – will likely be paying much
less on their wood sold into the U.S. come
August 2020.
The commerce department will be releasing
reasons for this ruling “within a few days”. In
August will be the final ruling, and soon after
the new, lower, duties will take effect.
Do the Canadian companies receive back the
amount over this preliminary ruling they have
paid so far, since the duty was put in place?
Good question, that is just one of the many
entanglements of a complicated trade file like
softwood lumber. The other, something new,
currently afoot is that the international
tribunal for softwood lumber at the World Trade
Organization (WTO) is stymied since December
2019 due to refusal by the U.S. to appoint new
arbitrator judges. Another working softwood
lumber retired, leaving only three judges on
that panel. It’s supposed to be a minimum of
five.
This arbitration was quite close to nearing
conclusion in Q3 2019; that’s one of the reasons
it was allowed to go on with only four judges.
At last update, it is unknown if the WTO will be
continuing with the ongoing Canada-U.S. softwood
lumber arbitration in international trade court.
In week ending January 31, 2020, benchmark North
American construction framing lumber item
Western Spruce-Pine-Fir KD 2×4 #2&Btr (RL)
prices popped up by +$6, or +1.5%, compared to
the previous week, to US$408 mfbm. This week’s
price is +$10, or +2.5%, more than it was one
month ago. At this time last year this price was
falling, so is now only up by +$4, or +1%
compared to the end of January 2019, a
significant drop from recent trend.
On February 3, 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce released its
preliminary determination for the First Administrative Review (AR1) in
antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of
imports of certain softwood lumber products from Canada.
The final determination by the U.S. commerce department on Canada’s
softwood lumber duty rate will be in August. At that time duty rates
could be lowered to:
9.08 per cent from 23.56 per cent for West Fraser
4.63 per cent from 20.52 per cent at Canfor
15.84 per cent from 17.90 per cent at Resolute Forest Products
4.32 per cent from 9.38 per cent at J.D. Irving
8.21 per cent for “all others”
Compared to historical trend, last week’s WSPF 2×4 #2&Btr price kept
rising, this time up by +$32, or +8.5%, relative to the 1-year rolling
average price of US$376 mfbm, but are down -$25, or -6%, relative to the
2-year rolling average price of US$433 mfbm. This week’s price is up
+$33, or +9% relative to the 5-year rolling average price of US$375 mfbm.
Momentum of demand from the previous week carried into the end of
January, rounding out a solid month of sales activity for the US WSPF
market. Pockets of cold weather afflicted certain areas, but
comparatively balmy conditions were also found in some target markets
and buyers continued to take away good volumes each day. Construction
activity was surprisingly strong considering the time of year. Producers
extended their sawmill order files into late-February on a handful of
items, as earlier-availability dried up on others. Players agreed that
2020 has kicked off in a much more encouraging fashion than 2019.
The below table is a comparison of recent highs, in June 2018, and
current February 2020 benchmark dimension softwood lumber 2×4 prices
compared to historical highs of 2004/05 and compared to recent lows of
Sept 2015:
Related News:
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U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 3, 2020 (January
27,
2020)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 2, 2020 (January
20,
2020)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 1, 2020 (January
13,
2020)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 50, 2019 (December
17,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 49, 2019 (December
10,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 48, 2019 (December
3,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 47, 2019 (November
26,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 46, 2019 (November
19,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 45, 2019 (November
12,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 44, 2019 (November
5,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 43, 2019 ( October
29,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 42, 2019 ( October
22,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 41, 2019 ( October
15,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 40, 2019 ( October
8,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 39, 2019 ( October
1,
2019)
-
U.S. &
Canada softwood and panel markets - week 38, 2019 ( September 24,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 37, 2019 ( September 17,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 36, 2019 ( September 10,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 35, 2019 ( September 3,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 34, 2019 ( August 23,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 33, 2019 ( August 16,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 32, 2019 ( August 09,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 31, 2019 ( August 02,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 30, 2019 ( July
26, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 29, 2019 ( July 19,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 28, 2019 ( July 12,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 27, 2019 ( July 03,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 26, 2019 ( June 28,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 25, 2019 ( June 21,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 24, 2019 ( June 14,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 23, 2019 ( June 07,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 22, 2019 ( May 31,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 21, 2019 ( May 24,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 20, 2019 ( May 17,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 19, 2019 ( May 10,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 18, 2019 ( May 03,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 17, 2019 ( April 26,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 16, 2019 ( April 19,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 15, 2019 ( April 12,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 14, 2019 ( April 05,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 13, 2019 ( March
29, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 12, 2019 ( March
22, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 11, 2019 ( March
15, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 10, 2019 ( March
08, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 9, 2019 ( March
01, 2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 8, 2019 ( February.
22, 2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 7, 2019 ( February.
15, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 6, 2019 ( February.
08, 2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 5, 2019 ( February.
01, 2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 4, 2019 (January. 25,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 3, 2019 (January. 18,
2019)
-
U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 2, 2019 (January. 11,
2019)
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U.S. softwood and panel markets - week 1, 2019 (January. 04,
2019)
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